跑馬地 · 2019-09-25
第 2場
2019-09-25跑馬地第2場，Class 5，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、K L Man訓練的COMPASSION STAR勝出，贏出3/4。ADONIS獲得亞軍；GOUTEN OF GARO獲得季軍。3.2倍大熱門ADONIS跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | COMPASSION STAR 1.10.29 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 11 | 4.3 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | ADONIS H/P R Bayliss · D J Whyte | R Bayliss | D J Whyte | 5 | 3.2 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | GOUTEN OF GARO TT N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 4 | 6.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | ASSOCIATION FANS H/SR/CP2 M Chadwick · L Ho | M Chadwick | L Ho | 7 | 33.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | AFTER ME A Sanna · P F Yiu | A Sanna | P F Yiu | 9 | 19.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | SHOW MISSION B H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 2 | 25.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | RICHCITY FORTUNE H/XB/TT K H Chan · K H Ting | K H Chan | K H Ting | 3 | 24.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | GREAT SON H-/B2/TT M F Poon · P O'Sullivan | M F Poon | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 19.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | ROCKAGE XB-/B/H1/TT1 H W Lai · K W Lui | H W Lai | K W Lui | 10 | 126.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | GREAT VICTORY H T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 6 | 54.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | YOUNG EMPIRE V/TT J Moreira · W Y So | J Moreira | W Y So | 1 | 3.9 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 11 | VICTORY MARCH PC1/TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 8 | 71.0 | 13 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | YOUNG EMPIRE | 22.1% | 4.52 | 11 |
| 2 | 5 | ADONIS | 19.6% | 5.10 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | GOUTEN OF GARO | 11.5% | 8.68 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | COMPASSION STAR | 10.4% | 9.62 | 1 |
| 5 | 9 | RICHCITY FORTUNE | 8.6% | 11.58 | 7 |
| 6 | 10 | SHOW MISSION | 8.1% | 12.37 | 6 |
| 7 | 2 | GREAT SON | 6.5% | 15.27 | 8 |
| 8 | 3 | AFTER ME | 3.8% | 26.08 | 5 |
| 9 | 11 | VICTORY MARCH | 2.6% | 38.25 | 12 |
| 10 | 12 | ROCKAGE | 2.5% | 39.45 | 9 |
| 11 | 7 | ASSOCIATION FANS | 2.4% | 42.51 | 4 |
| 12 | 8 | GREAT VICTORY | 1.8% | 57.03 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 43.5
PLACE
1 16
4 18.5
5 14.5
QUINELLA
1,5 89.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 44.5
1,5 36.5
4,5 45
TIERCE
1,5,4 692
TRIO
1,4,5 127
FIRST 4
1,4,5,7 832
QUARTET
1,5,4,7 10,975
1ST DOUBLE
4/1 291.5
4/5 41
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 22.5
A1 —