跑馬地 · 2019-09-25
第 4場
2019-09-25跑馬地第4場，Class 4，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由K Teetan策騎、A S Cruz訓練的DREAM WARRIORS勝出，贏出1-1/4。SANGRIA獲得亞軍；KING'S MAN獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.9倍大熱門FAMILY LEADER跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | DREAM WARRIORS 後段發力 CP/H/TT 1.49.89 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 4 | 6.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 6 | SANGRIA 後段發力 U Rispoli · D E Ferraris | U Rispoli | D E Ferraris | 11 | 13.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | KING'S MAN 後段發力 V G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 2 | 9.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | FAMILY LEADER 後段發力 B/H C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 6 | 2.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | FAITHFUL TRINITY H/P/TT N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 1 | 8.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | SUCH A HAPPINESS 後段發力 J Moreira · T P Yung | J Moreira | T P Yung | 5 | 5.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | POLYMER LUCK 早段領放 B H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 12 | 21.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | AMAZING AGILITY SR/TT H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 3 | 22.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | ENJOY LIFE B K H Chan · Y S Tsui | K H Chan | Y S Tsui | 10 | 52.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | RIGHTEOUS MATE 後段發力 L Hewitson · A T Millard | L Hewitson | A T Millard | 9 | 18.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | GOOD DAYS B/TT R Bayliss · C S Shum | R Bayliss | C S Shum | 8 | 23.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | GARLIC YEAH B- H T Mo · C H Yip | H T Mo | C H Yip | 7 | 72.0 | 8 |
| — | 0 | ENJOYABLE SUCCESS M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | FAMILY LEADER | 22.6% | 4.42 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | SUCH A HAPPINESS | 21.4% | 4.68 | 6 |
| 3 | 8 | DREAM WARRIORS | 21.0% | 4.76 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | FAITHFUL TRINITY | 6.9% | 14.43 | 5 |
| 5 | 2 | GOOD DAYS | 6.5% | 15.39 | 11 |
| 6 | 11 | RIGHTEOUS MATE | 6.1% | 16.52 | 10 |
| 7 | 6 | SANGRIA | 3.9% | 25.41 | 2 |
| 8 | 5 | KING'S MAN | 3.2% | 31.01 | 3 |
| 9 | 10 | POLYMER LUCK | 2.7% | 37.13 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | AMAZING AGILITY | 2.1% | 47.05 | 8 |
| 11 | 4 | ENJOY LIFE | 2.0% | 49.77 | 9 |
| 12 | 9 | GARLIC YEAH | 1.5% | 66.11 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 63
PLACE
5 26.5
6 34.5
8 24
QUINELLA
6,8 568.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 144
5,8 98
6,8 185.5
TIERCE
8,6,5 6,294
TRIO
5,6,8 1,156
FIRST 4
3,5,6,8 581
QUARTET
8,6,5,3 20,030
3 PICK 1
A1 20
A3 —
A2 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3RD DOUBLE
9/6 143.5
9/8 490