跑馬地 · 2019-10-09
第 3場
2019-10-09跑馬地第3場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由M L Yeung策騎、K H Ting訓練的HARDLY SWEARS勝出，贏出HD。TRAVEL DATUK獲得亞軍；MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE獲得季軍。3.2倍大熱門TRAVEL DATUK跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | HARDLY SWEARS H 1.09.98 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 7 | 5.6 | HD |
| 2 | 9 | TRAVEL DATUK B N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 1 | 3.2 | HD |
| 3 | 10 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE P J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 11 | 12.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 5 | BRIGHT KID B/XB C Schofield · D J Whyte | C Schofield | D J Whyte | 3 | 4.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 4 | SHOUSON B Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 8 | 8.4 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | AMAZING PARADISE TT1 K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 2 | 63.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | SUPER RED DRAGON H/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 6 | 40.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | HAPPY WIN WIN TT R Bayliss · C H Yip | R Bayliss | C H Yip | 12 | 171.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 1 | EVERBRAVE A Domeyer · K L Man | A Domeyer | K L Man | 4 | 6.3 | 5 |
| 10 | 8 | THE SHOW B H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 5 | 60.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | STUNNING IMPACT T H So · P O'Sullivan | T H So | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 94.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | MULTIMAX V/TT H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 10 | 20.0 | 14-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | TRAVEL DATUK | 25.1% | 3.98 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | BRIGHT KID | 15.6% | 6.39 | 4 |
| 3 | 10 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE | 10.5% | 9.55 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | EVERBRAVE | 10.0% | 10.02 | 9 |
| 5 | 6 | AMAZING PARADISE | 8.7% | 11.54 | 6 |
| 6 | 4 | SHOUSON | 8.2% | 12.22 | 5 |
| 7 | 3 | HARDLY SWEARS | 7.9% | 12.73 | 1 |
| 8 | 11 | SUPER RED DRAGON | 5.1% | 19.71 | 7 |
| 9 | 12 | MULTIMAX | 4.5% | 22.16 | 12 |
| 10 | 8 | THE SHOW | 2.0% | 49.17 | 10 |
| 11 | 7 | STUNNING IMPACT | 1.5% | 68.67 | 11 |
| 12 | 2 | HAPPY WIN WIN | 1.0% | 99.06 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 56.5
PLACE
3 20.5
9 13.5
10 33.5
QUINELLA
3,9 108.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,9 37.5
3,10 123.5
9,10 62.5
TIERCE
3,9,10 1,495
TRIO
3,9,10 300
FIRST 4
3,5,9,10 304
QUARTET
3,9,10,5 7,029
2ND DOUBLE
8/3 133
8/9 15
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 20.5
A3 —