跑馬地 · 2019-10-30
第 5場
2019-10-30跑馬地第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、C Fownes訓練的AURORA PEGASUS勝出，贏出1-1/4。TOP SCORE獲得亞軍；JOLLY CONVERGENCE獲得季軍。2.4倍大熱門KING'S TROOPER跑獲第11名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | AURORA PEGASUS TT 1.10.34 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 10 | 8.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 3 | TOP SCORE B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 5.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | JOLLY CONVERGENCE CP2 N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 6 | 23.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | BRIGHT KID B/XB A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 5 | 12.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | HAPPY WIN WIN TT T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 3 | 64.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | PRECIOUS SWEETIE H/TT M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 9 | 16.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | DR RESPECT P/TT1 B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 7 | 17.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | GALAXY RACER H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 11 | 211.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | THE ABRAXAS C Schofield · Y S Tsui | C Schofield | Y S Tsui | 1 | 4.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | WINNING TOGETHER B2 R Bayliss · C W Chang | R Bayliss | C W Chang | 12 | 199.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | KING'S TROOPER J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 2 | 2.4 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | ALL BEST FRIENDS B H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 8 | 56.0 | 8-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | THE ABRAXAS | 22.6% | 4.43 | 9 |
| 2 | 4 | KING'S TROOPER | 20.6% | 4.85 | 11 |
| 3 | 5 | AURORA PEGASUS | 17.2% | 5.81 | 1 |
| 4 | 7 | BRIGHT KID | 15.0% | 6.65 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | PRECIOUS SWEETIE | 8.5% | 11.72 | 6 |
| 6 | 3 | TOP SCORE | 6.5% | 15.39 | 2 |
| 7 | 9 | DR RESPECT | 4.0% | 24.78 | 7 |
| 8 | 10 | ALL BEST FRIENDS | 1.7% | 59.83 | 12 |
| 9 | 6 | HAPPY WIN WIN | 1.4% | 71.68 | 5 |
| 10 | 2 | JOLLY CONVERGENCE | 1.1% | 87.38 | 3 |
| 11 | 8 | WINNING TOGETHER | 0.7% | 139.50 | 10 |
| 12 | 12 | GALAXY RACER | 0.6% | 174.27 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 89.5
PLACE
2 46
3 17
5 26
QUINELLA
3,5 226
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 155.5
2,5 250.5
3,5 69.5
TIERCE
5,3,2 6,031
TRIO
2,3,5 1,102
FIRST 4
2,3,5,7 2,523
QUARTET
5,3,2,7 48,852
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 24
全部彩池（另 1 項）
4TH DOUBLE
7/3 73.5
7/5 606