跑馬地 · 2020-01-29
第 7場
2020-01-29跑馬地第7場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由K Teetan策騎、A S Cruz訓練的CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT勝出，贏出1-1/2。VICTORIAM獲得亞軍；HARDLY SWEARS獲得季軍。2.1倍大熱門VICTORIAM跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT TT1 1.09.75 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 12 | 6.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | VICTORIAM J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 3 | 2.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 6 | HARDLY SWEARS H M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 1 | 3.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | SUPERB DADDY T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 5 | 48.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | AURORA PEGASUS TT Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 6 | 5.4 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | HOME MADE B/TT M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 8 | 279.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | PRANCE DRAGON B K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 7 | 39.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | MOST BEAUTIFUL B/TT B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 9 | 77.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 12 | HAPPY WARRIOR CP A Badel · J Moore | A Badel | J Moore | 11 | 28.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | ETHIOPIAN YARN L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 2 | 331.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 11 | DIAMOND KING V/TT H N Wong · T P Yung | H N Wong | T P Yung | 10 | 201.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | SALTO OLIMPICO B C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 4 | 177.0 | 11 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | AURORA PEGASUS | 28.5% | 3.51 | 5 |
| 2 | 6 | HARDLY SWEARS | 25.0% | 3.99 | 3 |
| 3 | 4 | VICTORIAM | 23.2% | 4.30 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT | 5.8% | 17.35 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 | PRANCE DRAGON | 3.8% | 26.35 | 7 |
| 6 | 12 | HAPPY WARRIOR | 3.3% | 30.65 | 9 |
| 7 | 9 | SUPERB DADDY | 3.1% | 32.13 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | MOST BEAUTIFUL | 2.9% | 34.96 | 8 |
| 9 | 11 | DIAMOND KING | 2.0% | 50.33 | 11 |
| 10 | 10 | SALTO OLIMPICO | 1.2% | 84.04 | 12 |
| 11 | 8 | HOME MADE | 0.9% | 115.24 | 6 |
| 12 | 1 | ETHIOPIAN YARN | 0.4% | 244.13 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 61.5
PLACE
4 11
5 18.5
6 13.5
QUINELLA
4,5 69
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 27.5
4,6 18.5
5,6 41.5
TIERCE
5,4,6 470
TRIO
4,5,6 60
FIRST 4
4,5,6,9 364
QUARTET
5,4,6,9 5,758
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,10/4,5,6 3,373
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 27
6TH DOUBLE
5/4 10.5
5/5 146.5
TRIPLE TRIO
8,10,12/5,6,10/4,5,6 317,970
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
8,10,12/5,6,10/Any Combination 6,359