Happy Valley · 2020-01-29
Race 7
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT TT1 1.09.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 12 | 6.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | VICTORIAM J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 3 | 2.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | HARDLY SWEARS H M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 1 | 3.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | SUPERB DADDY T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 5 | 48.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | AURORA PEGASUS TT Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 6 | 5.4 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | HOME MADE B/TT M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 8 | 279.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | PRANCE DRAGON B K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 7 | 39.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | MOST BEAUTIFUL B/TT B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 9 | 77.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 0 | HAPPY WARRIOR CP A Badel · J Moore | A Badel | J Moore | 11 | 28.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | ETHIOPIAN YARN L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 2 | 331.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | DIAMOND KING V/TT H N Wong · T P Yung | H N Wong | T P Yung | 10 | 201.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | SALTO OLIMPICO B C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 4 | 177.0 | 11 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-29 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/2, with VICTORIAM second and HARDLY SWEARS third. The 2.1 favourite VICTORIAM finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | AURORA PEGASUS | 28.5% | 3.51 | 5 |
| 2 | 0 | HARDLY SWEARS | 25.0% | 3.99 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | VICTORIAM | 23.2% | 4.30 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT | 5.8% | 17.35 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | PRANCE DRAGON | 3.8% | 26.35 | 7 |
| 6 | 0 | HAPPY WARRIOR | 3.3% | 30.65 | 9 |
| 7 | 0 | SUPERB DADDY | 3.1% | 32.13 | 4 |
| 8 | 0 | MOST BEAUTIFUL | 2.9% | 34.96 | 8 |
| 9 | 0 | DIAMOND KING | 2.0% | 50.33 | 11 |
| 10 | 0 | SALTO OLIMPICO | 1.2% | 84.04 | 12 |
| 11 | 0 | HOME MADE | 0.9% | 115.24 | 6 |
| 12 | 0 | ETHIOPIAN YARN | 0.4% | 244.13 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 61.5
PLACE
4 11
5 18.5
6 13.5
QUINELLA
4,5 69
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 27.5
4,6 18.5
5,6 41.5
TIERCE
5,4,6 470
TRIO
4,5,6 60
FIRST 4
4,5,6,9 364
QUARTET
5,4,6,9 5,758
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,10/4,5,6 3,373
All pools (4 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 27
6TH DOUBLE
5/4 10.5
5/5 146.5
TRIPLE TRIO
8,10,12/5,6,10/4,5,6 317,970
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
8,10,12/5,6,10/Any Combination 6,359