Happy Valley · 2020-01-29
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-29 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. AMAZING STAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K H Ting, won by 1-3/4, with WALDORF second and JOYFUL UNION third. Victory came as the 1.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | AMAZING STAR 1.08.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 12 | 1.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | WALDORF B/TT G van Niekerk · A S Cruz | G van Niekerk | A S Cruz | 8 | 44.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | JOYFUL UNION N Callan · T P Yung | N Callan | T P Yung | 2 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | SUNSET WATCH XB/TT C Y Ho · C H Yip | C Y Ho | C H Yip | 11 | 139.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | MR CROISSANT CP B Shinn · W Y So | B Shinn | W Y So | 4 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | LOVING A BOOM B/TT S De Sousa · R Gibson | S De Sousa | R Gibson | 1 | 6.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | GUNNISON J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 10 | 33.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | GENTLE BREEZE B M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 9 | 28.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | GRACEANDMERCY XB/H1 M F Poon · A T Millard | M F Poon | A T Millard | 7 | 147.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 11 | BEAUTY AMIGO CP A Badel · J Moore | A Badel | J Moore | 3 | 26.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 10 | MR SO AND SO TT K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 5 | 158.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | CUE THE MUSIC SR/TT K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 6 | 13.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | AMAZING STAR | 42.8% | 2.34 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | MR CROISSANT | 11.4% | 8.80 | 5 |
| 3 | 6 | JOYFUL UNION | 9.6% | 10.37 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | LOVING A BOOM | 8.9% | 11.27 | 6 |
| 5 | 2 | GENTLE BREEZE | 8.0% | 12.48 | 8 |
| 6 | 7 | CUE THE MUSIC | 6.9% | 14.55 | 12 |
| 7 | 1 | GUNNISON | 3.5% | 28.35 | 7 |
| 8 | 5 | WALDORF | 3.2% | 31.67 | 2 |
| 9 | 11 | BEAUTY AMIGO | 1.8% | 55.17 | 10 |
| 10 | 4 | GRACEANDMERCY | 1.7% | 57.48 | 9 |
| 11 | 10 | MR SO AND SO | 1.1% | 87.16 | 11 |
| 12 | 12 | SUNSET WATCH | 1.0% | 95.74 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 14.5
PLACE
5 71.5
6 26
9 12
QUINELLA
5,9 250
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 332.5
5,9 91.5
6,9 32.5
TIERCE
9,5,6 1,605
TRIO
5,6,9 634
FIRST 4
5,6,9,12 8,231
QUARTET
9,5,6,12 56,180
3 PICK 1
A1 12
A2 —
A3 —
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
5/5 404
5/9 126.5