Happy Valley · 2020-01-29
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-29 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MASTER ALBERT, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W Y So, won by 1, with SIMPLY FLUKE second and FANTASTIC FABIO third. The 3.3 favourite LADY FIRST finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT 1.09.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 3 | 5.7 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | SIMPLY FLUKE H/XB A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 11 | 3.4 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | FANTASTIC FABIO B K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 5 | 15.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | LADY FIRST TT S De Sousa · K H Ting | S De Sousa | K H Ting | 1 | 3.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | THE SHOW B G van Niekerk · C W Chang | G van Niekerk | C W Chang | 12 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | THE ONE B/TT1 C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 10 | 6.7 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | TREASURE CHEST B- H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 7 | 51.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 4 | SWOT TROOPERS WIND H T H So · D J Hall | T H So | D J Hall | 9 | 191.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | E GENERATION XB M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 2 | 39.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | MR DARTHVEGAR H/TT- H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 8 | 35.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 6 | PLAY TO WIN H/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 4 | 20.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | BRAVE BABY B/TT T Piccone · A S Cruz | T Piccone | A S Cruz | 6 | 29.0 | 13-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LADY FIRST | 19.3% | 5.18 | 4 |
| 2 | 9 | MASTER ALBERT | 17.7% | 5.66 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | SIMPLY FLUKE | 11.8% | 8.47 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | THE ONE | 9.3% | 10.76 | 6 |
| 5 | 2 | BRAVE BABY | 7.6% | 13.22 | 12 |
| 6 | 6 | PLAY TO WIN | 7.5% | 13.31 | 11 |
| 7 | 10 | THE SHOW | 7.3% | 13.74 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | MR DARTHVEGAR | 6.6% | 15.11 | 10 |
| 9 | 8 | E GENERATION | 5.7% | 17.44 | 9 |
| 10 | 3 | FANTASTIC FABIO | 4.0% | 24.93 | 3 |
| 11 | 7 | TREASURE CHEST | 2.2% | 44.55 | 7 |
| 12 | 4 | SWOT TROOPERS WIND | 1.0% | 104.07 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 57.5
PLACE
3 34
9 18.5
12 15
QUINELLA
9,12 127.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,9 97.5
3,12 81
9,12 43.5
TIERCE
9,12,3 2,598
TRIO
3,9,12 420
FIRST 4
1,3,9,12 242
QUARTET
9,12,3,1 7,190
2ND DOUBLE
1/9 111
1/12 25.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 21