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Happy Valley · 2020-01-29

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CINQUANTE CINQ Closed strongly 1.39.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · T P Yung 9 2.1 2
2 0 DIVINE UNICORN TT H N Wong · Y S Tsui 1 78.0 2
3 0 WINNING ENDEAVOUR Closed strongly XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 3 2.6 2
4 0 TOP SCORE Led early B/TT A Badel · K W Lui 8 40.0 2-1/4
5 0 PICKEN G van Niekerk · J Size 4 7.8 2-1/4
6 0 NAMJONG PLUS Closed strongly M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 12 24.0 3
7 0 BEAUTY HAPPY Closed strongly CP1 L Hewitson · J Moore 11 59.0 3-1/4
8 0 WINNING DELIGHT Closed strongly B-/TT1 Z Purton · C Fownes 6 19.0 3-1/2
9 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR B/SR K C Leung · D J Whyte 5 97.0 7
10 0 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT TT H W Lai · C H Yip 2 70.0 8-1/4
11 0 HOME WIN M Chadwick · C W Chang 7 36.0 9-3/4
12 0 BRAVE LEGEND B/TT T Piccone · A S Cruz 10 26.0 18-1/2
— 0 SURREALISM S De Sousa · D E Ferraris — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-29 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. CINQUANTE CINQ, ridden by J Moreira and trained by T P Yung, won by 2, with DIVINE UNICORN second and WINNING ENDEAVOUR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CINQUANTE CINQ—2. DIVINE UNICORN+2L3. WINNING ENDEAVOUR+2L4. TOP SCORE+2.25L5. PICKEN+2.25L6. NAMJONG PLUS+3L7. BEAUTY HAPPY+3.25L8. WINNING DELIGHT+3.5L9. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+7L10. CHUNG WAH SPIRIT+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick WINNING ENDEAVOUR (29.6%) finished 3rd — the winner CINQUANTE CINQ was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 WINNING ENDEAVOUR 29.6% 3.38 3
2 0 CINQUANTE CINQ 23.7% 4.22 1
3 0 WINNING DELIGHT 9.0% 11.11 8
4 0 TOP SCORE 8.2% 12.21 4
5 0 PICKEN 7.5% 13.33 5
6 0 NAMJONG PLUS 6.0% 16.62 6
7 0 BRAVE LEGEND 4.6% 21.92 12
8 0 DIVINE UNICORN 3.3% 30.63 2
9 0 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT 2.8% 35.12 10
10 0 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 2.3% 42.93 9
11 0 BEAUTY HAPPY 1.8% 56.57 7
12 0 HOME WIN 1.2% 81.68 11
WINNING ENDEAVOURCINQUANTE CINQ — wonWINNING DELIGHTTOP SCOREPICKENNAMJONG PLUSBRAVE LEGENDDIVINE UNICORNCHUNG WAH SPIRITLONDON LUCKYSTARBEAUTY HAPPYHOME WIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 21

PLACE

5 10.1

6 133

10 14

QUINELLA

5,6 624

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 204.5

5,10 17

6,10 206.5

TIERCE

5,6,10 3,676

TRIO

5,6,10 431

FIRST 4

5,6,9,10 1,849

QUARTET

5,6,10,9 42,977

3 PICK 1

A1 12

A2 —

A3 —

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

8/5 129

8/6 618.5