Happy Valley · 2020-01-29
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND Closed strongly TT 1.49.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 2 | 4.3 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | DIONYSUS COLLIN Closed strongly H/XB J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 7 | 3.3 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | GALA NIGHT Led early CP G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 10 | 27.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | CHEERFUL STAR CP/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 6 | 3.5 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | ACCLAIMED LIGHT B N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 24.0 | 1 |
| 6 | 0 | TANGMERE Closed strongly V-/XB-/TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 9 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | KING'S MAN Closed strongly V T Piccone · P F Yiu | T Piccone | P F Yiu | 4 | 12.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | HAPPY WIN WIN XB/TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 11 | 17.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | PRETTY BAUHINIA Closed strongly B H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 8 | 40.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | GOOD DAYS B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 5 | 23.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 0 | DYNASTA B/TT1 L Hewitson · J Size | L Hewitson | J Size | 12 | 240.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | YOU HAVE MY WORD B B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 1 | 78.0 | 7-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-29 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA LEGEND, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with DIONYSUS COLLIN second and GALA NIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite DIONYSUS COLLIN finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | DIONYSUS COLLIN | 27.5% | 3.64 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | CHEERFUL STAR | 15.6% | 6.40 | 4 |
| 3 | 0 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND | 14.4% | 6.95 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | HAPPY WIN WIN | 6.7% | 14.96 | 8 |
| 5 | 0 | KING'S MAN | 6.4% | 15.54 | 7 |
| 6 | 0 | GOOD DAYS | 6.2% | 16.07 | 10 |
| 7 | 0 | GALA NIGHT | 5.4% | 18.47 | 3 |
| 8 | 0 | TANGMERE | 4.5% | 22.25 | 6 |
| 9 | 0 | ACCLAIMED LIGHT | 4.5% | 22.27 | 5 |
| 10 | 0 | YOU HAVE MY WORD | 4.2% | 23.62 | 12 |
| 11 | 0 | PRETTY BAUHINIA | 3.7% | 26.69 | 9 |
| 12 | 0 | DYNASTA | 0.8% | 124.55 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 43.5
PLACE
8 16
10 13
12 67.5
QUINELLA
8,10 82
QUINELLA PLACE
8,10 38
8,12 151
10,12 130.5
TIERCE
8,10,12 2,950
TRIO
8,10,12 473
FIRST 4
7,8,10,12 399
QUARTET
8,10,12,7 10,401
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,5,6/8,10,12 1,636
4>2,5,6/8,10,12 4,732
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 27
4TH DOUBLE
6/8 310.5
6/10 44