Happy Valley · 2020-01-29

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 11 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-29 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GOLDEN GLORY, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by K H Ting, won by 2, with GUNNAR second and WONDER BRAHMA third. The 3.1 favourite GUNNAR finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.00

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	GOLDEN GLORY B/TT 1.10.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · K H Ting	S De Sousa	K H Ting	3	123 lb	3.3	2
2	2	GUNNAR TT C Y Ho · C Fownes	C Y Ho	C Fownes	7	132 lb	3.1	2
3	3	WONDER BRAHMA H M L Yeung · D J Hall	M L Yeung	D J Hall	1	125 lb	4.3	3
3	4	MENAGGIO H N Callan · P F Yiu	N Callan	P F Yiu	5	124 lb	11.0	3
5	12	ALL BEST FRIENDS B H W Lai · K L Man	H W Lai	K L Man	11	115 lb	19.0	4-1/2
6	10	GRAND HARBOUR H/TT H N Wong · C W Chang	H N Wong	C W Chang	9	116 lb	112.0	5-3/4
7	8	DRAGON BOLT B L Hewitson · F C Lor	L Hewitson	F C Lor	8	122 lb	153.0	6
8	11	ONE STEP AHEAD TT1 K C Leung · P O'Sullivan	K C Leung	P O'Sullivan	4	119 lb	29.0	6-1/2
9	7	LOOK ERAS XB-/B/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui	H T Mo	Y S Tsui	12	120 lb	68.0	7-1/4
10	1	PRECIOUS SWEETIE H/TT T H So · L Ho	T H So	L Ho	2	131 lb	6.5	8
11	9	VICTORY VISION B1 M F Poon · C H Yip	M F Poon	C H Yip	6	120 lb	135.0	9-1/4
—	5	SUPER ALLIANCES J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	—	124 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick GOLDEN GLORY (22.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	GOLDEN GLORY	22.6%	4.42	1	3.3
2	2	GUNNAR	19.5%	5.13	2	3.1
3	3	WONDER BRAHMA	19.3%	5.19	3	4.3
4	1	PRECIOUS SWEETIE	9.7%	10.31	10	6.5
5	12	ALL BEST FRIENDS	8.6%	11.58	5	19.0
6	4	MENAGGIO	6.1%	16.43	3	11.0
7	11	ONE STEP AHEAD	4.4%	22.91	8	29.0
8	10	GRAND HARBOUR	3.3%	30.35	6	112.0
9	9	VICTORY VISION	2.8%	36.15	11	135.0
10	7	LOOK ERAS	2.5%	39.28	9	68.0
11	8	DRAGON BOLT	1.2%	81.98	7	153.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 33.5

PLACE

2 15

3 10.1

4 14

6 14.5

QUINELLA

2,6 50

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 14.5

2,4 25

2,6 24.5

3,4 49.5

3,6 12.5

4,6 27

TIERCE

6,2,3 168

6,2,4 438

TRIO

2,3,6 40

2,4,6 89

FIRST 4

2,3,4,6 227

QUARTET

6,2,3,4 1,388

6,2,4,3 1,724

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 33.5

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

9/2,5 19

9/6 219.5

← Race 3 Race 5 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 1200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99