Happy Valley · 2020-01-29
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-29 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SHOUSON, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Moore, won by 1, with SUPER LUCKY second and MELBOURNE HALL third. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SHOUSON B 1.10.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 2 | 1.9 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | SUPER LUCKY H/XB/B1 B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 7 | 21.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | MELBOURNE HALL XB M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 57.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | SUPER WINNER SR-/H/TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 11 | 6.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | FORTUNE HAPPINESS B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 14.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | U W BROTHER H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 1 | 6.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 1 | FAIRY TWINS TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 4 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | GALAXY EMPEROR H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 9 | 60.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 5 | BABY STORM H/TT M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 8 | 143.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | DESTINE JEWELLERY B-/V1 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 10 | 18.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | SPEEDY MISSILE H-/B1 M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 6 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | EVER STRONG P S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 3 | 29.0 | 5-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SHOUSON | 22.3% | 4.49 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 17.9% | 5.57 | 10 |
| 3 | 12 | U W BROTHER | 16.7% | 6.00 | 6 |
| 4 | 8 | SUPER WINNER | 11.5% | 8.66 | 4 |
| 5 | 2 | FORTUNE HAPPINESS | 7.7% | 13.01 | 5 |
| 6 | 10 | EVER STRONG | 7.3% | 13.71 | 12 |
| 7 | 11 | SPEEDY MISSILE | 4.6% | 21.89 | 11 |
| 8 | 4 | MELBOURNE HALL | 3.2% | 31.35 | 3 |
| 9 | 1 | FAIRY TWINS | 3.1% | 31.97 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | SUPER LUCKY | 3.0% | 32.79 | 2 |
| 11 | 6 | GALAXY EMPEROR | 1.5% | 67.80 | 8 |
| 12 | 5 | BABY STORM | 1.2% | 83.55 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 19.5
PLACE
3 12
4 111.5
7 47
QUINELLA
3,7 199
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 138
3,7 70.5
4,7 887.5
TIERCE
3,7,4 6,448
TRIO
3,4,7 2,165
FIRST 4
3,4,7,8 2,062
QUARTET
3,7,4,8 34,227
3 PICK 1
A1 15
A3 —
A2 —