Happy Valley · 2020-01-29
Race 9
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | HARMONY HERO Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.39.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · R Gibson | G van Niekerk | R Gibson | 1 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 0 | RELIABLE TEAM Closed strongly J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 2 | 1.9 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 0 | CIRCUIT GLORY Led early H/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz | L Hewitson | A S Cruz | 8 | 41.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | NOT USUAL TALENT Closed strongly Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 4 | 8.7 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | EASY GO EASY WIN B/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 9 | 22.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 0 | GREEN LUCK B/H B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 12 | 45.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 0 | HIGH REV Closed strongly B/XB C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 7 | 4.5 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | DANCES WITH DRAGON Closed strongly H/P/TT T Piccone · L Ho | T Piccone | L Ho | 11 | 13.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 0 | HELLO DADDY A Badel · K H Ting | A Badel | K H Ting | 3 | 97.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | HAPPY DRAGON H M Chadwick · J Moore | M Chadwick | J Moore | 10 | 22.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | RED DESERT S De Sousa · J Size | S De Sousa | J Size | 5 | 17.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 0 | GENEROUS CHARITY B1/TT1 N Callan · C S Shum | N Callan | C S Shum | 6 | 181.0 | 11-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-29 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. HARMONY HERO, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by R Gibson, won by 3/4, with RELIABLE TEAM second and CIRCUIT GLORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.9 favourite RELIABLE TEAM finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | RELIABLE TEAM | 43.0% | 2.32 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | HARMONY HERO | 13.7% | 7.29 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | HIGH REV | 10.6% | 9.42 | 7 |
| 4 | 0 | NOT USUAL TALENT | 7.4% | 13.45 | 4 |
| 5 | 0 | HAPPY DRAGON | 5.6% | 17.79 | 10 |
| 6 | 0 | RED DESERT | 4.5% | 22.03 | 11 |
| 7 | 0 | EASY GO EASY WIN | 3.7% | 27.19 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | DANCES WITH DRAGON | 2.9% | 34.27 | 8 |
| 9 | 0 | HELLO DADDY | 2.7% | 37.06 | 9 |
| 10 | 0 | GENEROUS CHARITY | 2.1% | 47.01 | 12 |
| 11 | 0 | GREEN LUCK | 1.9% | 51.94 | 6 |
| 12 | 0 | CIRCUIT GLORY | 1.7% | 58.87 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 115.5
PLACE
4 74.5
8 12
12 31
QUINELLA
8,12 101.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 117
4,12 459
8,12 44
TIERCE
12,8,4 6,194
TRIO
4,8,12 952
FIRST 4
1,4,8,12 1,445
QUARTET
12,8,4,1 51,850
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 26.5
A1 —
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,9/4,8,12 51,330
8TH DOUBLE
9/8 10.5
9/12 144
SIX UP
2,5,6/8,10/5,6/4,5/5,9/8,12 229
6/8/5/5/9/12 90,163
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
5/9/8 55
5/9/12 1,155