跑馬地 · 2020-02-12
第 3場
2020-02-12跑馬地第3場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由G van Niekerk策騎、K H Ting訓練的TAKINGUFURTHER勝出，贏出3-1/2。COMPASSION STAR獲得亞軍；DESTINE JEWELLERY獲得季軍。1.5倍大熱門CALIFORNIA RAD跑獲第8名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | TAKINGUFURTHER H/V 1.09.22 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） G van Niekerk · K H Ting | G van Niekerk | K H Ting | 8 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | COMPASSION STAR Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 5 | 5.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | DESTINE JEWELLERY V A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 1 | 15.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | FOCUS B/TT C Schofield · P F Yiu | C Schofield | P F Yiu | 9 | 23.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | BREEDERS' SKY H-/B1 K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 4 | 25.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 7 | DAILY DELIGHT B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 3 | 82.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | SHIMMER AND SHINE C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 6 | 30.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 4 | CALIFORNIA RAD CP/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 2 | 1.5 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | PLIKCLONE H M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 12 | 44.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | WILLFUL H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 7 | 392.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | FANTASTIC FABIO B- K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 10 | 15.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | HAPPY PROJECT B H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 11 | 306.0 | 12-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | CALIFORNIA RAD | 42.6% | 2.35 | 8 |
| 2 | 5 | COMPASSION STAR | 18.0% | 5.57 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | BREEDERS' SKY | 8.1% | 12.32 | 5 |
| 4 | 11 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 6.2% | 16.25 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | FOCUS | 5.7% | 17.46 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | PLIKCLONE | 4.8% | 20.93 | 9 |
| 7 | 3 | TAKINGUFURTHER | 4.3% | 23.02 | 1 |
| 8 | 2 | FANTASTIC FABIO | 4.1% | 24.59 | 11 |
| 9 | 6 | SHIMMER AND SHINE | 2.9% | 34.33 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | DAILY DELIGHT | 1.9% | 51.45 | 6 |
| 11 | 12 | HAPPY PROJECT | 1.0% | 101.17 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | WILLFUL | 0.4% | 253.32 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 131
PLACE
3 30.5
5 13
11 25.5
QUINELLA
3,5 389
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 73.5
3,11 182
5,11 67.5
TIERCE
3,5,11 7,720
TRIO
3,5,11 1,228
FIRST 4
3,5,8,11 2,300
QUARTET
3,5,11,8 54,109
2ND DOUBLE
12/3 1,444
12/5 161
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 37.5
A2 —