沙田 · 2021-02-21
第 9場
2021-02-21沙田第9場，4YO，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD。由A Badel策騎、F C Lor訓練的HEALTHY HAPPY勝出，贏出N。RUSSIAN EMPEROR獲得亞軍；SHADOW HERO獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。3.9倍大熱門TOURBILLON DIAMOND跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | HEALTHY HAPPY 一路領先 V/TT 1.47.21 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 8 | 22.0 | N |
| 2 | 10 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR 後段發力 XB/B1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 11 | 80.0 | N |
| 3 | 7 | SHADOW HERO 後段發力 CP Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 9 | 8.8 | N |
| 4 | 2 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL 後段發力 E B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 5 | 4.1 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 3 | 3.9 | 1 |
| 6 | 12 | PACKING WALTHAM 後段發力 CP-/B1/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 6 | 25.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | SKY DARCI 後段發力 TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 4 | 8.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | LUCKY EXPRESS E/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 2 | 5.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 14 | SEA OF LIFE 後段發力 V A Hamelin · K W Lui | A Hamelin | K W Lui | 14 | 113.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 11 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 後段發力 H/XB V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 12 | 68.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | DELIGHTFUL LAOS 後段發力 B/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz | K C Leung | A S Cruz | 10 | 29.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | LUCKY PATCH B/H M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 7 | 9.2 | 5-1/4 |
| 13 | 9 | CONQUEROR B T Piccone · D A Hayes | T Piccone | D A Hayes | 1 | 44.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 14 | 13 | SMILING TIME N Callan · K H Ting | N Callan | K H Ting | 13 | 203.0 | 17 |
| — | 0 | MAXIMUS C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SKY DARCI | 23.6% | 4.24 | 7 |
| 2 | 5 | LUCKY PATCH | 14.1% | 7.07 | 12 |
| 3 | 3 | LUCKY EXPRESS | 10.9% | 9.17 | 8 |
| 4 | 7 | SHADOW HERO | 9.4% | 10.62 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND | 8.6% | 11.57 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | DELIGHTFUL LAOS | 8.0% | 12.49 | 11 |
| 7 | 6 | HEALTHY HAPPY | 6.9% | 14.54 | 1 |
| 8 | 12 | PACKING WALTHAM | 5.8% | 17.21 | 6 |
| 9 | 2 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL | 5.2% | 19.12 | 4 |
| 10 | 14 | SEA OF LIFE | 5.0% | 19.98 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | CONQUEROR | 1.0% | 95.46 | 13 |
| 12 | 11 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM | 0.7% | 149.05 | 10 |
| 13 | 10 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR | 0.4% | 268.73 | 2 |
| 14 | 13 | SMILING TIME | 0.3% | 330.99 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 226.5
PLACE
6 54.5
7 29.5
10 188.5
QUINELLA
6,10 11,361
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 282
6,10 2,753
7,10 965.5
FORECAST
6,10 15,191
TIERCE
6,10,7 168,449
TRIO
6,7,10 32,053
FIRST 4
2,6,7,10 26,199
QUARTET
6,10,7,2 963,284
全部彩池（另 3 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 34.5
8TH DOUBLE
7/6 4,948
7/10 2,300
WINNING TRAINER
B2 —
B4 17.5
B3 —
B1 —