跑馬地 · 2021-05-19
第 3場
2021-05-19跑馬地第3場，Class 4，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由A Badel策騎、D J Hall訓練的OVERSUBSCRIBED勝出，贏出N。HAPPILY FRIENDS獲得亞軍；PACKING CHAMPION獲得季軍。4.7倍大熱門HAPPILY FRIENDS跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | OVERSUBSCRIBED XB 0.57.04 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 3 | 5.1 | N |
| 2 | 11 | HAPPILY FRIENDS H-/V1 C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 5 | 4.7 | N |
| 3 | 8 | PACKING CHAMPION H/P H N Wong · L Ho | H N Wong | L Ho | 11 | 31.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | TRAVEL DATUK B M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 6 | 7.6 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | WIN WIN STAR R Maia · P F Yiu | R Maia | P F Yiu | 4 | 5.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | VICTORY IN HAND TT K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 7 | 6.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | FARIBAULT CP V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 68.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 2 | BALTIC WHISPER B/TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 2 | 9.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | PRINCE OF BON BON B M Chadwick · D E Ferraris | M Chadwick | D E Ferraris | 8 | 37.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | PANZERSCHRECK E1/TT1 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 14.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | SEA MONARCH H/V/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 9 | 86.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | MASTER OF FUN H- K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 12 | 14.0 | 6-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | PANZERSCHRECK | 30.7% | 3.26 | 10 |
| 2 | 9 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 15.2% | 6.60 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | HAPPILY FRIENDS | 11.2% | 8.92 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | VICTORY IN HAND | 9.7% | 10.30 | 6 |
| 5 | 2 | BALTIC WHISPER | 7.7% | 13.05 | 8 |
| 6 | 7 | TRAVEL DATUK | 7.6% | 13.13 | 4 |
| 7 | 5 | WIN WIN STAR | 5.0% | 19.83 | 5 |
| 8 | 4 | PRINCE OF BON BON | 4.4% | 22.99 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | MASTER OF FUN | 4.0% | 25.05 | 12 |
| 10 | 12 | SEA MONARCH | 1.8% | 54.39 | 11 |
| 11 | 8 | PACKING CHAMPION | 1.8% | 56.22 | 3 |
| 12 | 10 | FARIBAULT | 1.0% | 101.12 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 51.5
PLACE
8 91.5
9 20.5
11 18.5
QUINELLA
9,11 126
QUINELLA PLACE
8,9 298.5
8,11 262.5
9,11 45
FORECAST
9,11 198
TIERCE
9,11,8 3,928
TRIO
8,9,11 1,253
FIRST 4
7,8,9,11 856
QUARTET
9,11,8,7 19,029
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE
5/9 170
5/11 43.5
3 PICK 1
A1 33.5
A2 —
A3 —