沙田 · 2021-05-23
第 11場
2021-05-23沙田第11場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、C Fownes訓練的KILLER BEE勝出，贏出1-1/2。METRO WARRIOR獲得亞軍；CLASSIC POSH獲得季軍。頭馬以1.6倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | KILLER BEE H/TT 1.08.73 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 8 | 1.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | METRO WARRIOR B Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 9 | 8.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | CLASSIC POSH H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 13 | 59.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | HARMONY WIN WIN SR/XB/TT- M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 10 | 73.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | MIG ENERGY XB/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 3 | 15.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | TORNADO TWIST B/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 6 | 9.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | NAMJONG SINGS B A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 5 | 7.5 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | POWER KOEPP E1 C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 7 | 82.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | CHICKEN DANCE CP K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 13.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | BEAUTY AMIGO B/TT K H Chan · K L Man | K H Chan | K L Man | 11 | 138.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 13 | WINSTON'S LAD B H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 12 | 81.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | HERCULES B/XB/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 1 | 95.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 13 | 9 | SUPER WIN DRAGON H/TT A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 2 | 51.0 | 13-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | KILLER BEE | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | METRO WARRIOR | 12.3% | 8.16 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | NAMJONG SINGS | 7.3% | 13.71 | 7 |
| 4 | 8 | CHICKEN DANCE | 7.2% | 13.83 | 9 |
| 5 | 2 | MIG ENERGY | 6.1% | 16.45 | 5 |
| 6 | 3 | TORNADO TWIST | 5.1% | 19.78 | 6 |
| 7 | 10 | CLASSIC POSH | 2.8% | 35.98 | 3 |
| 8 | 12 | HERCULES | 2.7% | 36.74 | 12 |
| 9 | 9 | SUPER WIN DRAGON | 1.9% | 51.47 | 13 |
| 10 | 13 | WINSTON'S LAD | 1.2% | 84.71 | 11 |
| 11 | 7 | BEAUTY AMIGO | 0.8% | 124.55 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | HARMONY WIN WIN | 0.6% | 166.37 | 4 |
| 13 | 5 | POWER KOEPP | 0.5% | 197.18 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 16
PLACE
1 21
4 11
10 63.5
QUINELLA
1,4 57.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 25
1,10 285
4,10 114.5
FORECAST
4,1 87
TIERCE
4,1,10 1,472
TRIO
1,4,10 542
FIRST 4
1,4,10,11 3,594
QUARTET
4,1,10,11 26,453
全部彩池（另 5 項）
10TH DOUBLE
9/1 145
9/4 85.5
3 PICK 1
A1 16
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,9/1,4,10 90,460
SIX UP
3,10/4,11/3,6/5,7/5,9/1,4 11,161
10/4/6/5/9/4 454,896
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
5/9/1 827
5/9/4 520