跑馬地 · 2021-06-23
第 7場
2021-06-23跑馬地第7場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由A Badel策騎、T P Yung訓練的JOLLY GOOD HEART勝出，贏出1-1/2。HONG KONG BET獲得亞軍；ALCARI獲得季軍。4.8倍大熱門FAMILY FOLKS跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | JOLLY GOOD HEART 1.09.19 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 2 | 15.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | HONG KONG BET TT Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 8 | 7.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | ALCARI V J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 5 | 5.8 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | TELECOM SMART TT M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 6 | 7.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | FAMILY FOLKS CP A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 3 | 4.8 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | STOICISM K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 4 | 7.3 | 4 |
| 7 | 9 | SHOUSON B K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 12 | 40.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | RHAPSODY H Bentley · J Size | H Bentley | J Size | 10 | 24.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | SMART LEADER B/TT H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 1 | 38.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | STANLEY PARK B C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 11 | 8.1 | 6 |
| 11 | 2 | GREEN AEON H/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 7 | 16.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 4 | ALL FOR SOUTH B M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 9 | 10.0 | 10-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | FAMILY FOLKS | 15.3% | 6.52 | 5 |
| 2 | 8 | TELECOM SMART | 14.7% | 6.78 | 4 |
| 3 | 1 | HONG KONG BET | 11.9% | 8.38 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | ALL FOR SOUTH | 11.1% | 9.00 | 12 |
| 5 | 11 | JOLLY GOOD HEART | 10.7% | 9.35 | 1 |
| 6 | 5 | ALCARI | 8.7% | 11.45 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | STOICISM | 8.7% | 11.46 | 6 |
| 8 | 2 | GREEN AEON | 5.4% | 18.56 | 11 |
| 9 | 12 | RHAPSODY | 5.3% | 18.98 | 8 |
| 10 | 3 | STANLEY PARK | 4.6% | 21.94 | 10 |
| 11 | 9 | SHOUSON | 2.6% | 37.77 | 7 |
| 12 | 10 | SMART LEADER | 0.8% | 117.65 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 150
PLACE
1 23
5 21.5
11 58
QUINELLA
1,11 797
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 107.5
1,11 222.5
5,11 152
FORECAST
11,1 1,577
TIERCE
11,1,5 9,541
TRIO
1,5,11 1,155
FIRST 4
1,5,8,11 1,248
QUARTET
11,1,5,8 39,093
全部彩池（另 5 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,6/1,5,11 19,845
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 23
6TH DOUBLE
2/1 30
2/11 254
TRIPLE TRIO
1,9,10/2,4,6/1,5,11 976,433
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,9,10/2,4,6/Any Combination 2,161