跑馬地 · 2021-10-20
第 4場
2021-10-20跑馬地第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、C S Shum訓練的ROMANTIC WARRIOR勝出，贏出1-1/2。A SMILE LIKE YOURS獲得亞軍；GREAT HARVEST獲得季軍。3.4倍大熱門GREAT HARVEST跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | ROMANTIC WARRIOR TT1 1.09.48 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 12 | 3.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 10 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | GREAT HARVEST A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 5 | 3.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 5 | PRANCE DRAGON V/TT C Y Ho · T P Yung | C Y Ho | T P Yung | 2 | 6.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | TREASURE OF FIELD TT1 M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 3 | 22.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | UNIVERSAL GO GO B/TT C Schofield · K W Lui | C Schofield | K W Lui | 9 | 43.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | SPLIT OF A SECOND CP/H V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 1 | 21.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 10 | DESTIN B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 8.7 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | CHIKORITA XB-/TT- H T Mo · R Gibson | H T Mo | R Gibson | 8 | 75.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 1 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS B C L Chau · P F Yiu | C L Chau | P F Yiu | 6 | 6.3 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | A A AGILITY B M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 11 | 134.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 9 | SIMPLE DOCTRINE B/XB A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 7 | 136.0 | 12-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | GREAT HARVEST | 20.6% | 4.85 | 3 |
| 2 | 6 | ROMANTIC WARRIOR | 18.7% | 5.35 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS | 14.1% | 7.09 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | PRANCE DRAGON | 10.5% | 9.49 | 4 |
| 5 | 10 | DESTIN | 8.5% | 11.73 | 8 |
| 6 | 1 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 8.4% | 11.94 | 10 |
| 7 | 8 | TREASURE OF FIELD | 7.9% | 12.70 | 5 |
| 8 | 3 | UNIVERSAL GO GO | 4.0% | 25.29 | 6 |
| 9 | 2 | A A AGILITY | 2.4% | 42.20 | 11 |
| 10 | 11 | CHIKORITA | 2.1% | 46.58 | 9 |
| 11 | 12 | SPLIT OF A SECOND | 1.9% | 53.49 | 7 |
| 12 | 9 | SIMPLE DOCTRINE | 0.9% | 106.66 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 37
PLACE
4 14.5
6 17
7 29
QUINELLA
6,7 212.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 33.5
4,7 63.5
6,7 77.5
FORECAST
6,7 386
TIERCE
6,7,4 1,389
TRIO
4,6,7 243
FIRST 4
4,5,6,7 315
QUARTET
6,7,4,5 7,270
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 18
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
12/6 266.5
12/7 133