沙田 · 2022-05-07 · 15:03
第 5場
2022-05-07沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、K L Man訓練的RED ELYSEES勝出，贏出1。BORN THE SAME DAY獲得亞軍；TOYCOON獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.8倍大熱門RIGHT AS RAIN跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | RED ELYSEES 後段發力 B/TT 1.48.66 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 6 | 6.5 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | BORN THE SAME DAY 後段發力 H B Shinn · K W Lui | B Shinn | K W Lui | 4 | 32.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | TOYCOON CP H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 7 | 29.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | RIGHT AS RAIN 後段發力 B-/CP1 Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 14 | 3.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 14 | TURQUOISE ALPHA 後段發力 CP/XB/H1 K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 13 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 5 | PAKISTAN FRIEND 早段領放 TT L Ferraris · W Y So | L Ferraris | W Y So | 5 | 9.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | DAILY CHARM 後段發力 B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 10 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | SUPER HONG KONG B/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 2 | 10.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | EEVEE B/TT C Y Ho · D A Hayes | C Y Ho | D A Hayes | 1 | 7.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | BARON ZEE CP/TT R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 3 | 71.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 13 | MAKE IT TURBO B L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 11 | 25.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 6 | JOYFUL HEART PC-/CP2/TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 9 | 19.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 2 | SHANGHAI DRAGON B M F Poon · T P Yung | M F Poon | T P Yung | 8 | 8.5 | 7 |
| 14 | 11 | DRAGON COMMANDER B H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 12 | 83.0 | 11-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | RIGHT AS RAIN | 19.4% | 5.14 | 4 |
| 2 | 10 | DAILY CHARM | 14.5% | 6.90 | 7 |
| 3 | 9 | RED ELYSEES | 13.9% | 7.18 | 1 |
| 4 | 8 | SUPER HONG KONG | 9.1% | 10.95 | 8 |
| 5 | 12 | EEVEE | 7.2% | 13.83 | 9 |
| 6 | 6 | JOYFUL HEART | 7.2% | 13.94 | 12 |
| 7 | 2 | SHANGHAI DRAGON | 7.1% | 14.01 | 13 |
| 8 | 3 | TOYCOON | 6.6% | 15.22 | 3 |
| 9 | 14 | TURQUOISE ALPHA | 4.8% | 20.86 | 5 |
| 10 | 5 | PAKISTAN FRIEND | 4.3% | 23.00 | 6 |
| 11 | 13 | MAKE IT TURBO | 2.6% | 39.06 | 11 |
| 12 | 4 | BARON ZEE | 1.2% | 84.21 | 10 |
| 13 | 1 | BORN THE SAME DAY | 1.0% | 98.89 | 2 |
| 14 | 11 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 1.0% | 101.14 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 65.5
PLACE
1 90
3 66.5
9 21.5
QUINELLA
1,9 1,097.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 1,034.5
1,9 367.5
3,9 270
FORECAST
9,1 1,663
TIERCE
9,1,3 45,528
TRIO
1,3,9 9,028
FIRST 4
1,3,7,9 6,202
QUARTET
9,1,3,7 180,953
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 28
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
1/1 571.5
1/9 1,488.5