沙田 · 2022-07-10 · 17:48
第 10場
2022-07-10沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由L Ferraris策騎、A S Cruz訓練的CIRCUIT STELLAR勝出，贏出N。KEEFY獲得亞軍；NAVAS TWO獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.7倍大熱門KEEFY跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | CIRCUIT STELLAR 後段發力 H/TT 1.21.24 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 2 | 5.5 | N |
| 2 | 7 | KEEFY 後段發力 J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 5 | 2.7 | N |
| 3 | 3 | NAVAS TWO 後段發力 CP R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 14 | 9.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | PRECISE EXPRESS 後段發力 H/P C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 8 | 31.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | SHINING GEM 後段發力 B K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 6 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | PRIVATE ROCKET B-/XB/SR2 L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 9 | 34.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 14 | VIVA HUNTER B-/TT- M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 3 | 10.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | MASTER MONTARO 後段發力 CP L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 12 | 78.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | BEAUTY FIT 後段發力 B/E A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 11 | 18.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 13 | GLUCK RACER V-/TT1 M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 13 | 46.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | CAPTAIN WIN XB Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 10 | 6.5 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 1 | CIRCUIT THREE 後段發力 B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 51.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 13 | 12 | DECISIVE TWELVE 早段領放 P/TT H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 4 | 175.0 | 19-1/2 |
| — | 0 | SAUVESTRE C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | — | — | — |
| — | 8 | WINNER METHOD TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 7 | 16.0 | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | KEEFY | 31.8% | 3.14 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | CAPTAIN WIN | 13.8% | 7.26 | 11 |
| 3 | 3 | NAVAS TWO | 12.2% | 8.19 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 | SHINING GEM | 7.1% | 14.18 | 5 |
| 5 | 6 | BEAUTY FIT | 6.8% | 14.68 | 9 |
| 6 | 14 | VIVA HUNTER | 5.9% | 16.97 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | PRECISE EXPRESS | 5.9% | 16.98 | 4 |
| 8 | 11 | PRIVATE ROCKET | 5.5% | 18.20 | 6 |
| 9 | 10 | CIRCUIT STELLAR | 4.2% | 23.75 | 1 |
| 10 | 13 | GLUCK RACER | 2.1% | 47.26 | 10 |
| 11 | 2 | MASTER MONTARO | 2.1% | 48.57 | 8 |
| 12 | 1 | CIRCUIT THREE | 1.8% | 56.88 | 12 |
| 13 | 12 | DECISIVE TWELVE | 0.9% | 111.34 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 55.5
PLACE
3 28.5
7 13.5
10 21
QUINELLA
7,10 98
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 63.5
3,10 114
7,10 40.5
FORECAST
10,7 269
TIERCE
10,7,3 1,690
TRIO
3,7,10 285
FIRST 4
3,4,7,10 1,270
QUARTET
10,7,3,4 25,249
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 18.5
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
10,11,12/3,7,10 40,072
9TH DOUBLE
10/7 37
10/10 310
SIX UP
5/8/3/9/10/10 821,699
5,8/8,11/3,12/6,9/10,11/7,10 21,994
3 [K C Leung] —
TREBLE
9/10/7 145
9/10/10 968