沙田 · 2022-12-18 · 17:13
第 9場
2022-12-18沙田第9場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由L Hewitson策騎、C S Shum訓練的LIGHTNING BOLT勝出，贏出1/2。MARK THE MOMENT獲得亞軍；YOUTHFUL DEAL獲得季軍。3.7倍大熱門YOUTHFUL DEAL跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | LIGHTNING BOLT 1.08.82 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 11 | 14.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | MARK THE MOMENT V1/TT1 C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 1 | 34.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 12 | YOUTHFUL DEAL SR/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 2 | 3.7 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | MIDORI BEAUTY TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 12 | 6.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | MAN STAR V L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 10 | 39.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE B/TT K H Chan · D J Hall | K H Chan | D J Hall | 6 | 47.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | RED DESERT B H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 8 | 6.8 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | FIERY DIAMOND K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 9 | 5.6 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | JOLLY RULER S De Sousa · P F Yiu | S De Sousa | P F Yiu | 5 | 4.7 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 1 | MAXIMUS SR/XB K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 3 | 15.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS B/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 4 | 64.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 12 | 11 | GOLDEN WARSTEED B/XB R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 7 | 103.0 | 17-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | MIDORI BEAUTY | 24.2% | 4.13 | 4 |
| 2 | 12 | YOUTHFUL DEAL | 19.4% | 5.14 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | FIERY DIAMOND | 12.0% | 8.34 | 8 |
| 4 | 9 | JOLLY RULER | 7.5% | 13.36 | 9 |
| 5 | 1 | MAXIMUS | 6.9% | 14.47 | 10 |
| 6 | 4 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE | 6.3% | 15.90 | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | RED DESERT | 5.8% | 17.13 | 7 |
| 8 | 2 | MAN STAR | 5.3% | 18.83 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | LIGHTNING BOLT | 5.0% | 20.00 | 1 |
| 10 | 5 | MARK THE MOMENT | 3.6% | 27.71 | 2 |
| 11 | 10 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS | 2.4% | 41.48 | 11 |
| 12 | 11 | GOLDEN WARSTEED | 1.5% | 66.67 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 140.5
PLACE
5 83.5
8 33.5
12 16.5
QUINELLA
5,8 2,186
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 514.5
5,12 182.5
8,12 91.5
FORECAST
8,5 5,367
TIERCE
8,5,12 21,978
TRIO
5,8,12 1,592
FIRST 4
5,6,8,12 3,047
QUARTET
8,5,12,6 133,640
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 42
A1 —
8TH DOUBLE
8/5 286
8/8 1,315