沙田 · 2022-12-18 · 14:32
第 4場
2022-12-18沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由S De Sousa策騎、C H Yip訓練的KASI FARASI勝出，贏出1-1/4。SPARKY STAR獲得亞軍；HELENE WISDOM STAR獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.7倍大熱門WAR WEAPON跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | KASI FARASI 後段發力 1.21.95 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） S De Sousa · C H Yip | S De Sousa | C H Yip | 4 | 13.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 7 | SPARKY STAR 後段發力 B H Bowman · T P Yung | H Bowman | T P Yung | 7 | 6.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 1 | HELENE WISDOM STAR 後段發力 B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 11 | 15.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | SPLENDID LIVING TT K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 14 | 6.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | GANG OF BROTHERS 早段領放 V L Hewitson · P C Ng | L Hewitson | P C Ng | 6 | 26.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | WAR WEAPON 後段發力 TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 9 | 2.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | DAZZLING FELLOW 後段發力 XB M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 13 | 134.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | FUNCTION PATCH 後段發力 H/TT C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 1 | 44.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | ONE HEART ONE CP/TT L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 10 | 37.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 9 | TYCOON JEWELLERY 後段發力 H/XB1/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 12 | 16.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | VICTORY SCHOLARS V C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 6.1 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | FLYING SWORD B/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 2 | 15.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 13 | 14 | VUKAN B/XB/TT C Wong · J Richards | C Wong | J Richards | 8 | 56.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 14 | 13 | KARUIZAWA B/TT H N Wong · C S Shum | H N Wong | C S Shum | 5 | 276.0 | 17-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | WAR WEAPON | 14.9% | 6.73 | 6 |
| 2 | 7 | SPARKY STAR | 10.6% | 9.43 | 2 |
| 3 | 11 | SPLENDID LIVING | 9.8% | 10.22 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 | VICTORY SCHOLARS | 9.8% | 10.23 | 11 |
| 5 | 9 | TYCOON JEWELLERY | 9.5% | 10.51 | 10 |
| 6 | 1 | HELENE WISDOM STAR | 7.6% | 13.20 | 3 |
| 7 | 10 | KASI FARASI | 7.4% | 13.53 | 1 |
| 8 | 2 | FUNCTION PATCH | 7.2% | 13.98 | 8 |
| 9 | 6 | FLYING SWORD | 6.4% | 15.62 | 12 |
| 10 | 8 | ONE HEART ONE | 5.8% | 17.38 | 9 |
| 11 | 4 | GANG OF BROTHERS | 4.8% | 20.97 | 5 |
| 12 | 14 | VUKAN | 3.2% | 30.94 | 13 |
| 13 | 12 | DAZZLING FELLOW | 2.3% | 43.29 | 7 |
| 14 | 13 | KARUIZAWA | 0.9% | 113.73 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 132
PLACE
1 39
7 22.5
10 32.5
QUINELLA
7,10 428.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,7 133.5
1,10 243
7,10 122.5
FORECAST
10,7 748
TIERCE
10,7,1 9,668
TRIO
1,7,10 1,714
FIRST 4
1,7,10,11 2,228
QUARTET
10,7,1,11 65,929
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
7,10,14/1,7,10 1,576,055
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 26.5
3RD DOUBLE
7/7 35.5
7/10 233.5