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Sha Tin · 2022-12-18 · 14:32

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-18 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. KASI FARASI, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by C H Yip, won by 1-1/4, with SPARKY STAR second and HELENE WISDOM STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite WAR WEAPON finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.21.95
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 KASI FARASI Closed strongly 1.21.95 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · C H Yip 4 13.0 1-1/4
2 7 SPARKY STAR Closed strongly B H Bowman · T P Yung 7 6.7 1-1/4
3 1 HELENE WISDOM STAR Closed strongly B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 15.0 1-1/2
4 11 SPLENDID LIVING TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 14 6.4 2-1/2
5 4 GANG OF BROTHERS Led early V L Hewitson · P C Ng 6 26.0 2-1/2
6 3 WAR WEAPON Closed strongly TT Z Purton · W Y So 9 2.7 2-3/4
7 12 DAZZLING FELLOW Closed strongly XB M F Poon · D J Hall 13 134.0 3-3/4
8 2 FUNCTION PATCH Closed strongly H/TT C L Chau · K W Lui 1 44.0 4-1/4
9 8 ONE HEART ONE CP/TT L Currie · D A Hayes 10 37.0 5
10 9 TYCOON JEWELLERY Closed strongly H/XB1/TT K Teetan · J Size 12 16.0 5-3/4
11 5 VICTORY SCHOLARS V C Y Ho · C Fownes 3 6.1 6-1/4
12 6 FLYING SWORD B/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 2 15.0 7-3/4
13 14 VUKAN B/XB/TT C Wong · J Richards 8 56.0 11-1/4
14 13 KARUIZAWA B/TT H N Wong · C S Shum 5 276.0 17-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KASI FARASI—2. SPARKY STAR+1.25L3. HELENE WISDOM STAR+1.5L4. SPLENDID LIVING+2.5L5. GANG OF BROTHERS+2.5L6. WAR WEAPON+2.75L7. DAZZLING FELLOW+3.75L8. FUNCTION PATCH+4.25L9. ONE HEART ONE+5L10. TYCOON JEWELLERY+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick WAR WEAPON (14.9%) finished 6th — the winner KASI FARASI was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 WAR WEAPON 14.9% 6.73 6
2 7 SPARKY STAR 10.6% 9.43 2
3 11 SPLENDID LIVING 9.8% 10.22 4
4 5 VICTORY SCHOLARS 9.8% 10.23 11
5 9 TYCOON JEWELLERY 9.5% 10.51 10
6 1 HELENE WISDOM STAR 7.6% 13.20 3
7 10 KASI FARASI 7.4% 13.53 1
8 2 FUNCTION PATCH 7.2% 13.98 8
9 6 FLYING SWORD 6.4% 15.62 12
10 8 ONE HEART ONE 5.8% 17.38 9
11 4 GANG OF BROTHERS 4.8% 20.97 5
12 14 VUKAN 3.2% 30.94 13
13 12 DAZZLING FELLOW 2.3% 43.29 7
14 13 KARUIZAWA 0.9% 113.73 14
WAR WEAPONSPARKY STARSPLENDID LIVINGVICTORY SCHOLARSTYCOON JEWELLERYHELENE WISDOM STARKASI FARASI — wonFUNCTION PATCHFLYING SWORDONE HEART ONEGANG OF BROTHERSVUKANDAZZLING FELLOWKARUIZAWA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 132

PLACE

1 39

7 22.5

10 32.5

QUINELLA

7,10 428.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 133.5

1,10 243

7,10 122.5

FORECAST

10,7 748

TIERCE

10,7,1 9,668

TRIO

1,7,10 1,714

FIRST 4

1,7,10,11 2,228

QUARTET

10,7,1,11 65,929

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

7,10,14/1,7,10 1,576,055

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 26.5

3RD DOUBLE

7/7 35.5

7/10 233.5

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