Sha Tin · 2022-12-18 · 14:01
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-18 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. EXCELLENT FIGHTER, ridden by J McNeil and trained by P F Yiu, won by HD, with DOUBLE SHOW second and ORIENTAL SPIRIT third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | EXCELLENT FIGHTER TT1 0.57.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McNeil · P F Yiu | J McNeil | P F Yiu | 6 | 2.0 | HD |
| 2 | 14 | DOUBLE SHOW B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 9 | 66.0 | HD |
| 3 | 10 | ORIENTAL SPIRIT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 7 | 100.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | SOARING PENGSHAN TT1 M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 8 | 51.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | NOBLE ONE H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 22.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | FLYING HIGH TT L Ferraris · W Y So | L Ferraris | W Y So | 14 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | COOL BLUE TT1 H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 13 | 15.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 12 | SUPER FAST DRAGON TT1 L Currie · J Richards | L Currie | J Richards | 10 | 91.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 2 | BABY CRYSTAL K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 1 | 6.3 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | BEAT HOLLOW H1 K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 11 | 27.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 13 | VALHALLA B/XB/TT S De Sousa · C Fownes | S De Sousa | C Fownes | 3 | 18.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 4 | ATOMIC ENERGY TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 2 | 68.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 13 | 8 | HAPPY HORSE TT1 M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 5 | 134.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 14 | 9 | KA YING WARRIOR H1/XB1 Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 12 | 5.2 | 93-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | KA YING WARRIOR | 20.2% | 4.95 | 14 |
| 2 | 2 | BABY CRYSTAL | 18.0% | 5.54 | 9 |
| 3 | 6 | COOL BLUE | 10.0% | 10.05 | 7 |
| 4 | 4 | ATOMIC ENERGY | 8.7% | 11.51 | 12 |
| 5 | 13 | VALHALLA | 7.3% | 13.74 | 11 |
| 6 | 3 | NOBLE ONE | 6.1% | 16.36 | 5 |
| 7 | 1 | FLYING HIGH | 5.7% | 17.70 | 6 |
| 8 | 10 | ORIENTAL SPIRIT | 4.7% | 21.31 | 3 |
| 9 | 8 | HAPPY HORSE | 3.8% | 26.06 | 13 |
| 10 | 11 | SOARING PENGSHAN | 3.5% | 28.78 | 4 |
| 11 | 7 | EXCELLENT FIGHTER | 3.3% | 30.73 | 1 |
| 12 | 12 | SUPER FAST DRAGON | 3.2% | 31.15 | 8 |
| 13 | 5 | BEAT HOLLOW | 3.0% | 32.88 | 10 |
| 14 | 14 | DOUBLE SHOW | 2.6% | 38.92 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 20
PLACE
7 11.5
10 172
14 101.5
QUINELLA
7,14 568.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,10 328
7,14 170.5
10,14 2,405
FORECAST
7,14 1,030
TIERCE
7,14,10 17,469
TRIO
7,10,14 9,406
FIRST 4
7,10,11,14 16,224
QUARTET
7,14,10,11 219,580
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
5/7 604.5
5/14 1,187.5
3 PICK 1
A1 14.5
A2 —
A3 —