Sha Tin · 2022-12-18 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-18 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CHEERY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-3/4, with NICHOLSON RETURNS second and STAR OF YUEN LONG third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.34.41

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	CHEERY Closed strongly B 1.34.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P F Yiu	Z Purton	P F Yiu	6	133 lb	2.6	1-3/4
2	5	NICHOLSON RETURNS Closed strongly B L Hewitson · D J Hall	L Hewitson	D J Hall	11	127 lb	8.4	1-3/4
3	13	STAR OF YUEN LONG Closed strongly B-/TT M F Poon · K L Man	M F Poon	K L Man	5	115 lb	64.0	3-3/4
4	8	OVER THE MOON Closed strongly B/TT J McNeil · C Fownes	J McNeil	C Fownes	9	123 lb	11.0	4
5	6	PRESIDENT'S CHOICE Closed strongly S De Sousa · C W Chang	S De Sousa	C W Chang	3	127 lb	8.7	4
6	4	TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly H-/CP/XB H Bowman · P C Ng	H Bowman	P C Ng	12	131 lb	5.9	6-1/4
7	1	OSCAR GLORY V K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	8	135 lb	24.0	7
8	11	HAPPY HERO B2 C Y Ho · C H Yip	C Y Ho	C H Yip	7	119 lb	126.0	8
9	3	HELENE ALLIBOR Closed strongly B/TT L Currie · D A Hayes	L Currie	D A Hayes	14	131 lb	41.0	9-1/4
10	10	PAKISTAN FRIEND TT Y L Chung · W Y So	Y L Chung	W Y So	4	110 lb	6.0	9-1/4
11	12	REGENCY MASTER B/TT C Wong · C S Shum	C Wong	C S Shum	1	111 lb	75.0	10-1/4
12	7	VICTORY PARK Closed strongly B-/V2/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte	A Hamelin	D J Whyte	13	127 lb	87.0	11-1/4
13	14	VIVA A LA H/P/TT H T Mo · L Ho	H T Mo	L Ho	10	113 lb	165.0	11-1/2
14	9	VOYAGE STAR Led early V/TT C L Chau · T P Yung	C L Chau	T P Yung	2	120 lb	19.0	20

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick CHEERY (30.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	CHEERY	30.9%	3.24	1	2.6
2	6	PRESIDENT'S CHOICE	11.3%	8.82	5	8.7
3	10	PAKISTAN FRIEND	8.6%	11.66	10	6.0
4	1	OSCAR GLORY	7.7%	13.07	7	24.0
5	5	NICHOLSON RETURNS	7.2%	13.81	2	8.4
6	9	VOYAGE STAR	6.3%	15.80	14	19.0
7	4	TURQUOISE ALPHA	6.3%	15.86	6	5.9
8	8	OVER THE MOON	6.2%	16.25	4	11.0
9	3	HELENE ALLIBOR	4.2%	24.06	9	41.0
10	12	REGENCY MASTER	3.5%	28.18	11	75.0
11	14	VIVA A LA	3.0%	33.12	13	165.0
12	7	VICTORY PARK	2.2%	45.24	12	87.0
13	13	STAR OF YUEN LONG	1.5%	67.29	3	64.0
14	11	HAPPY HERO	1.1%	91.65	8	126.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 26

PLACE

2 15.5

5 30

13 120

QUINELLA

2,5 131

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 59.5

2,13 256.5

5,13 520

FORECAST

2,5 194

TIERCE

2,5,13 7,807

TRIO

2,5,13 2,107

FIRST 4

2,5,8,13 4,640

QUARTET

2,5,13,8 67,609

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 21

A3 —

4TH DOUBLE

10/2 376

10/5 124.5

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