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Sha Tin · 2022-12-18 · 17:51

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.34.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MASSIVE ACTION Wire to wire SR/V 1.34.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 3 14.0 3/4
2 0 HAPPY DAY Closed strongly TT- L Hewitson · W Y So 2 8.5 3/4
3 0 STUNNING IMPACT B S De Sousa · P C Ng 6 6.7 1
4 0 HAPPY TOGETHER Closed strongly TT1 L Ferraris · R Gibson 13 39.0 1-1/4
5 0 STORM LEGEND CP- C Y Ho · C Fownes 4 9.8 2
6 0 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · L Ho 11 35.0 2
7 0 RUNNING AHEAD Closed strongly TT1 C L Chau · T P Yung 9 130.0 3-3/4
8 0 WORLD FAMOUS B J McNeil · P F Yiu 8 107.0 4-3/4
9 0 ACCELERANDO TT Z Purton · J Size 7 1.8 6
10 0 SATIRICAL GLORY Closed strongly K Teetan · D A Hayes 14 52.0 7-1/2
11 0 ATOMIC BEAUTY B-/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 10 75.0 7-1/2
12 0 KILINDINI TT H Bentley · A T Millard 5 35.0 8-1/4
13 0 PEGASUS HERO H R Maia · Y S Tsui 1 214.0 11-3/4
14 0 NEVER TOO SOON TT H Bowman · D J Hall 12 11.0 16

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-18 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. MASSIVE ACTION, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with HAPPY DAY second and STUNNING IMPACT third. The winner led throughout. The 1.8 favourite ACCELERANDO finished 9th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASSIVE ACTION—2. HAPPY DAY+0.75L3. STUNNING IMPACT+1L4. HAPPY TOGETHER+1.25L5. STORM LEGEND+2L6. HAPPY DAILY+2L7. RUNNING AHEAD+3.75L8. WORLD FAMOUS+4.75L9. ACCELERANDO+6L10. SATIRICAL GLORY+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ACCELERANDO (40.0%) finished 9th — the winner MASSIVE ACTION was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ACCELERANDO 40.0% 2.50 9
2 0 STUNNING IMPACT 14.9% 6.73 3
3 0 STORM LEGEND 7.7% 13.00 5
4 0 NEVER TOO SOON 6.9% 14.40 14
5 0 HAPPY DAY 6.3% 15.90 2
6 0 MASSIVE ACTION 5.6% 17.96 1
7 0 HAPPY DAILY 4.3% 23.31 6
8 0 ATOMIC BEAUTY 2.8% 35.67 11
9 0 KILINDINI 2.6% 38.24 12
10 0 WORLD FAMOUS 2.4% 41.01 8
11 0 RUNNING AHEAD 2.2% 44.92 7
12 0 HAPPY TOGETHER 1.8% 54.91 4
13 0 SATIRICAL GLORY 1.7% 60.05 10
14 0 PEGASUS HERO 0.8% 129.68 13
ACCELERANDOSTUNNING IMPACTSTORM LEGENDNEVER TOO SOONHAPPY DAYMASSIVE ACTION — wonHAPPY DAILYATOMIC BEAUTYKILINDINIWORLD FAMOUSRUNNING AHEADHAPPY TOGETHERSATIRICAL GLORYPEGASUS HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 144

PLACE

7 19.5

8 37

13 21

QUINELLA

8,13 446.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,8 112.5

7,13 66

8,13 132

FORECAST

8,13 1,260

TIERCE

8,13,7 5,043

TRIO

7,8,13 613

FIRST 4

7,8,10,13 7,209

QUARTET

8,13,7,10 146,386

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 30

A1 —

A3 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

5,8,12/7,8,13 435,869

9TH DOUBLE

8/8 2,566

8/13 293.5

SIX UP

2,5/1,6/5,8/8,11/5,8/8,13 109,489

1 [J Size] —

1 [Z Purton] —

TREBLE

8/8/8 15,621

8/8/13 2,969