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Sha Tin · 2022-12-18 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-12-18 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HOLY POWER, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by J Richards, won by N, with BRAVE DREAMS second and SUPER WISE DRAGON third. The 3.7 favourite UNITED WE STAND finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.97
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 HOLY POWER B1/XB1 1.09.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · J Richards 2 29.0 N
2 2 BRAVE DREAMS H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 11 3.8 N
3 8 SUPER WISE DRAGON TT1 L Ferraris · W Y So 3 115.0 3/4
4 12 MASTER OF LUCK H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 8.5 1
5 1 UNITED WE STAND B/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 7 3.7 1-1/2
6 11 EASY SNIP C L Chau · T P Yung 6 18.0 1-3/4
7 9 E RAINBOW L Currie · D A Hayes 5 10.0 2-1/2
8 3 GOLD TACK S De Sousa · A T Millard 1 85.0 4-1/4
9 4 HERO ICON M F Poon · K L Man 12 6.1 4-3/4
10 7 MACH TEN J McNeil · P F Yiu 4 32.0 6-1/4
11 6 HUGE WIN Z Purton · F C Lor 8 6.7 7
12 10 HAR HAR AT HEART H1 V Borges · J Size 10 42.0 7
0 GOOD RUNNER H Bowman · D J Hall

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HOLY POWER2. BRAVE DREAMS+0.05L3. SUPER WISE DRAGON+0.75L4. MASTER OF LUCK+1L5. UNITED WE STAND+1.5L6. EASY SNIP+1.75L7. E RAINBOW+2.5L8. GOLD TACK+4.25L9. HERO ICON+4.75L10. MACH TEN+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HUGE WIN (27.4%) finished 11th — the winner HOLY POWER was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 HUGE WIN 27.4% 3.65 11
2 1 UNITED WE STAND 12.4% 8.08 5
3 2 BRAVE DREAMS 11.0% 9.10 2
4 3 GOLD TACK 10.9% 9.14 8
5 12 MASTER OF LUCK 7.2% 13.96 4
6 11 EASY SNIP 6.9% 14.48 6
7 9 E RAINBOW 6.3% 15.96 7
8 8 SUPER WISE DRAGON 4.9% 20.34 3
9 4 HERO ICON 3.8% 26.30 9
10 5 HOLY POWER 3.6% 27.61 1
11 10 HAR HAR AT HEART 3.2% 30.82 12
12 7 MACH TEN 2.4% 42.15 10
HUGE WINUNITED WE STANDBRAVE DREAMSGOLD TACKMASTER OF LUCKEASY SNIPE RAINBOWSUPER WISE DRAGONHERO ICONHOLY POWER — wonHAR HAR AT HEARTMACH TEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 296.5

PLACE

2 16

5 63.5

8 154

QUINELLA

2,5 485

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 147.5

2,8 504

5,8 1,359

FORECAST

5,2 1,092

TIERCE

5,2,8 35,826

TRIO

2,5,8 5,914

FIRST 4

2,5,8,12 10,476

QUARTET

5,2,8,12 329,651

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

2/2 14

2/5 551.5

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 39

A1