跑馬地 · 2022-12-21 · 20:16
第 4場
2022-12-21跑馬地第4場，Class 5，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、J Richards訓練的FLYING ON THE TURF勝出，贏出1-1/4。G ONE EXCELLENT獲得亞軍；HEAVENLY THOUGHT獲得季軍。2.7倍大熱門G ONE EXCELLENT跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | FLYING ON THE TURF B/XB/TT 1.09.67 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 4 | 4.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 4 | G ONE EXCELLENT B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 5 | 2.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 10 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT B2 A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 11 | 43.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | ACA POWER H L Currie · D J Hall | L Currie | D J Hall | 8 | 22.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | THE GOOD DEAL H/B2/TT K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 9 | 63.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED SR-/B2/TT H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 1 | 5.8 | 6 |
| 7 | 5 | WINS ALL B/TT L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 12 | 34.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | DASHING GENIUS TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 3 | 9.3 | 7 |
| 9 | 7 | PRINCE OF BON BON M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 7 | 112.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | DIVINE ERA TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 10 | 17.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | HANDSOME GUYS E/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 6 | 6.5 | 11 |
| 12 | 11 | CALL ME LU PC-/V1/TT M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 2 | 53.0 | 22 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | FLYING ON THE TURF | 19.3% | 5.18 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | G ONE EXCELLENT | 15.8% | 6.32 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED | 13.8% | 7.22 | 6 |
| 4 | 8 | HANDSOME GUYS | 13.1% | 7.62 | 11 |
| 5 | 12 | DASHING GENIUS | 9.3% | 10.71 | 8 |
| 6 | 9 | THE GOOD DEAL | 5.3% | 19.02 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | ACA POWER | 5.2% | 19.17 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | WINS ALL | 4.9% | 20.28 | 7 |
| 9 | 1 | DIVINE ERA | 4.4% | 22.52 | 10 |
| 10 | 11 | CALL ME LU | 3.9% | 25.64 | 12 |
| 11 | 7 | PRINCE OF BON BON | 2.5% | 40.39 | 9 |
| 12 | 10 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT | 2.3% | 43.03 | 3 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 45.5
PLACE
3 16.5
4 13.5
10 112
QUINELLA
3,4 78.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 34.5
3,10 423
4,10 290.5
FORECAST
3,4 199
TIERCE
3,4,10 6,241
TRIO
3,4,10 1,221
FIRST 4
3,4,6,10 3,983
QUARTET
3,4,10,6 59,400
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 17
3RD DOUBLE
2/3 803
2/4 100.5