跑馬地 · 2022-12-21 · 22:53
第 9場
2022-12-21跑馬地第9場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由C Y Ho策騎、C S Shum訓練的NORDIC DRAGON勝出，贏出1-1/4。EXCELLENT PEERS獲得亞軍；GOLDEN LINK獲得季軍。頭馬以2.1倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | NORDIC DRAGON TT 1.08.96 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 8 | 2.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | EXCELLENT PEERS H/XB H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 7 | 5.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 12 | GOLDEN LINK K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 10 | 60.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL CP/XB H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 2 | 8.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | ELON E/P L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 9 | 38.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | WINNING ICEY TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 5 | 6.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | HYPER DRAGON BALL J McNeil · T P Yung | J McNeil | T P Yung | 3 | 79.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | SUPER FORTUNE H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 11 | 9.4 | 6 |
| 9 | 6 | FAULDS B/XB/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 12 | 43.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 8 | SMOKEY BEAR B/XB/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 6 | 41.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 7 | GLORIOUS STARLIGHT H M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 1 | 218.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | SCOTCH TYCOON H-/B1 L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 4 | 15.0 | 10-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | NORDIC DRAGON | 27.6% | 3.62 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | EXCELLENT PEERS | 20.0% | 5.01 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | WINNING ICEY | 10.4% | 9.61 | 6 |
| 4 | 9 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 10.4% | 9.64 | 4 |
| 5 | 2 | SUPER FORTUNE | 10.3% | 9.74 | 8 |
| 6 | 8 | SMOKEY BEAR | 4.7% | 21.22 | 10 |
| 7 | 5 | SCOTCH TYCOON | 4.5% | 22.38 | 12 |
| 8 | 6 | FAULDS | 3.5% | 28.95 | 9 |
| 9 | 12 | GOLDEN LINK | 3.2% | 31.68 | 3 |
| 10 | 4 | ELON | 2.5% | 40.00 | 5 |
| 11 | 10 | HYPER DRAGON BALL | 2.1% | 47.90 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | GLORIOUS STARLIGHT | 1.0% | 97.63 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 21
PLACE
1 17.5
11 12.5
12 114.5
QUINELLA
1,11 56.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,11 26.5
1,12 318
11,12 224.5
FORECAST
11,1 76
TIERCE
11,1,12 2,744
TRIO
1,11,12 941
FIRST 4
1,9,11,12 1,506
QUARTET
11,1,12,9 15,654
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 16
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,9/1,11,12 113,847
8TH DOUBLE
5/1 64.5
5/11 271
SIX UP
3,4/4,9/7,9/5,11/5,6/1,11 485
3/9/9/5/5/11 70,686
1 [Z Purton] —
4 [A S Cruz] —
TREBLE
5/5/1 209
5/5/11 671