Happy Valley · 2022-12-21 · 22:53
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-21 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. NORDIC DRAGON, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/4, with EXCELLENT PEERS second and GOLDEN LINK third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | NORDIC DRAGON TT 1.08.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 8 | 2.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | EXCELLENT PEERS H/XB H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 7 | 5.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 12 | GOLDEN LINK K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 10 | 60.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL CP/XB H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 2 | 8.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | ELON E/P L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 9 | 38.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | WINNING ICEY TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 5 | 6.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | HYPER DRAGON BALL J McNeil · T P Yung | J McNeil | T P Yung | 3 | 79.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | SUPER FORTUNE H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 11 | 9.4 | 6 |
| 9 | 6 | FAULDS B/XB/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 12 | 43.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 8 | SMOKEY BEAR B/XB/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 6 | 41.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 7 | GLORIOUS STARLIGHT H M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 1 | 218.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | SCOTCH TYCOON H-/B1 L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 4 | 15.0 | 10-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | NORDIC DRAGON | 27.6% | 3.62 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | EXCELLENT PEERS | 20.0% | 5.01 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | WINNING ICEY | 10.4% | 9.61 | 6 |
| 4 | 9 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 10.4% | 9.64 | 4 |
| 5 | 2 | SUPER FORTUNE | 10.3% | 9.74 | 8 |
| 6 | 8 | SMOKEY BEAR | 4.7% | 21.22 | 10 |
| 7 | 5 | SCOTCH TYCOON | 4.5% | 22.38 | 12 |
| 8 | 6 | FAULDS | 3.5% | 28.95 | 9 |
| 9 | 12 | GOLDEN LINK | 3.2% | 31.68 | 3 |
| 10 | 4 | ELON | 2.5% | 40.00 | 5 |
| 11 | 10 | HYPER DRAGON BALL | 2.1% | 47.90 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | GLORIOUS STARLIGHT | 1.0% | 97.63 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 21
PLACE
1 17.5
11 12.5
12 114.5
QUINELLA
1,11 56.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,11 26.5
1,12 318
11,12 224.5
FORECAST
11,1 76
TIERCE
11,1,12 2,744
TRIO
1,11,12 941
FIRST 4
1,9,11,12 1,506
QUARTET
11,1,12,9 15,654
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 16
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,9/1,11,12 113,847
8TH DOUBLE
5/1 64.5
5/11 271
SIX UP
3,4/4,9/7,9/5,11/5,6/1,11 485
3/9/9/5/5/11 70,686
1 [Z Purton] —
4 [A S Cruz] —
TREBLE
5/5/1 209
5/5/11 671