Happy Valley · 2022-12-21 · 18:46
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-21 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. TELECOM MISSILE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by HD, with M M JOHNNY second and ALLOY KING third. The 4.8 favourite STRIVE FOR GLORY finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | TELECOM MISSILE B/TT 1.09.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 1 | 5.0 | HD |
| 2 | 6 | M M JOHNNY B H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 7 | 5.6 | HD |
| 3 | 11 | ALLOY KING V H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 5 | 15.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | TRAVEL GLORY B K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 9 | 7.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | SUNSHINE LEGENDARY B/XB K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 11 | 32.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | DAY DAY RICH B/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 3 | 6.4 | 3 |
| 7 | 1 | STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 8 | 4.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | ONE STEP AHEAD L Currie · C W Chang | L Currie | C W Chang | 6 | 17.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | TOUCH FAITH V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 12 | 27.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 10 | SPLENDID STAR V1 M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 2 | 32.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | SHENRON H/PC/XB/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 10 | 18.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 5 | GLORIFIED FIRE A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 4 | 15.0 | 13-1/4 |
| — | 0 | ENCORE M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | STRIVE FOR GLORY | 18.6% | 5.39 | 7 |
| 2 | 4 | TELECOM MISSILE | 14.3% | 7.02 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | DAY DAY RICH | 14.1% | 7.07 | 6 |
| 4 | 6 | M M JOHNNY | 10.8% | 9.30 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | ONE STEP AHEAD | 8.5% | 11.75 | 8 |
| 6 | 12 | TRAVEL GLORY | 7.0% | 14.33 | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | SHENRON | 6.4% | 15.60 | 11 |
| 8 | 3 | TOUCH FAITH | 6.3% | 15.97 | 9 |
| 9 | 5 | GLORIFIED FIRE | 5.9% | 17.02 | 12 |
| 10 | 2 | SUNSHINE LEGENDARY | 3.6% | 28.12 | 5 |
| 11 | 11 | ALLOY KING | 2.6% | 38.37 | 3 |
| 12 | 10 | SPLENDID STAR | 2.1% | 47.93 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 50
PLACE
4 20.5
6 18.5
11 44
QUINELLA
4,6 138
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 57.5
4,11 165
6,11 131
FORECAST
4,6 270
TIERCE
4,6,11 4,168
TRIO
4,6,11 824
FIRST 4
4,6,11,12 1,229
QUARTET
4,6,11,12 23,553
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 18.5
A3 —