Happy Valley · 2022-12-21 · 20:46
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-21 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FARIBAULT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by 1/2, with JUNEAU FLASH second and ONE FOR ALL third. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | FARIBAULT B 0.57.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 3 | 2.2 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | JUNEAU FLASH H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 7 | 3.3 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | ONE FOR ALL B/TT R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 1 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | CIRCUIT SEVEN H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 2 | 6.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | MIGHTY VALOR CP/TT J McNeil · P F Yiu | J McNeil | P F Yiu | 5 | 27.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | MOMENTUM GALAXY B K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 6 | 23.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 3 | HAPPY GOLF TT1 M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 4 | 15.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 8 | STARRY NIGHT B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 11 | 38.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 6 | ACE TALENT B1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 10 | 29.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | SIX BEST FRIENDS B/TT K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 8 | 61.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 5 | MODEST GENTLEMAN TT M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 12 | 171.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | UNIVERSAL CROWN B A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 9 | 96.0 | 7-1/2 |
| — | 0 | CHICKEN DANCE · J Richards | — | J Richards | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | FARIBAULT | 35.5% | 2.81 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | JUNEAU FLASH | 12.3% | 8.13 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | CIRCUIT SEVEN | 10.4% | 9.58 | 4 |
| 4 | 11 | ONE FOR ALL | 10.3% | 9.75 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | HAPPY GOLF | 6.6% | 15.06 | 7 |
| 6 | 1 | MOMENTUM GALAXY | 5.6% | 17.81 | 6 |
| 7 | 8 | STARRY NIGHT | 5.1% | 19.62 | 8 |
| 8 | 7 | MIGHTY VALOR | 5.1% | 19.73 | 5 |
| 9 | 6 | ACE TALENT | 3.3% | 30.27 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | UNIVERSAL CROWN | 2.9% | 34.22 | 12 |
| 11 | 10 | SIX BEST FRIENDS | 1.6% | 61.15 | 10 |
| 12 | 5 | MODEST GENTLEMAN | 1.2% | 83.11 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 22
PLACE
4 15
9 10.5
11 31.5
QUINELLA
4,9 35.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,9 19.5
4,11 67.5
9,11 55.5
FORECAST
9,4 62
TIERCE
9,4,11 473
TRIO
4,9,11 152
FIRST 4
2,4,9,11 144
QUARTET
9,4,11,2 1,406
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,10/4,9,11 24,163
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 13
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
3/4 32
3/9 98