Happy Valley · 2022-12-21 · 21:46
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-21 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 2, with SIXTH GENERATION second and OWNERS' PRAISE third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE 1.09.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 1 | 2.3 | 2 |
| 2 | 11 | SIXTH GENERATION H/TT L Currie · J Richards | L Currie | J Richards | 8 | 4.4 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | OWNERS' PRAISE K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 11 | 15.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | UNITED WE STAND B/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 6 | 10.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | JAZZ STEED B/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 9 | 36.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | ALL IS GOOD B R Maia · K W Lui | R Maia | K W Lui | 4 | 8.5 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | HERCULES B/TT L Hewitson · C H Yip | L Hewitson | C H Yip | 2 | 13.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 4 | FUN TOGETHER J McNeil · T P Yung | J McNeil | T P Yung | 3 | 133.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | KA YING GLORIOUS CP1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 12 | 132.0 | 9 |
| 10 | 1 | H Z TOURBILLON TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 5 | 7.4 | 10 |
| 11 | 12 | HAPPY TRIO H/V A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 10 | 43.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | SPEEDSTAR B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 7 | 181.0 | 15-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE | 24.2% | 4.13 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | UNITED WE STAND | 12.0% | 8.33 | 4 |
| 3 | 8 | ALL IS GOOD | 10.9% | 9.18 | 6 |
| 4 | 11 | SIXTH GENERATION | 10.8% | 9.27 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | HERCULES | 9.5% | 10.48 | 7 |
| 6 | 1 | H Z TOURBILLON | 7.9% | 12.64 | 10 |
| 7 | 3 | OWNERS' PRAISE | 7.5% | 13.29 | 3 |
| 8 | 9 | JAZZ STEED | 5.0% | 20.01 | 5 |
| 9 | 12 | HAPPY TRIO | 4.5% | 22.05 | 11 |
| 10 | 4 | FUN TOGETHER | 3.6% | 27.81 | 8 |
| 11 | 6 | KA YING GLORIOUS | 2.9% | 34.84 | 9 |
| 12 | 10 | SPEEDSTAR | 1.1% | 89.65 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 23
PLACE
3 44.5
5 10.5
11 15
QUINELLA
5,11 65.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 87
3,11 146
5,11 30
FORECAST
5,11 105
TIERCE
5,11,3 963
TRIO
3,5,11 330
FIRST 4
3,5,7,11 607
QUARTET
5,11,3,7 5,137
All pools (5 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
5,7,9/3,5,11 16,316
3 PICK 1
A1 15
A2 —
A3 —
6TH DOUBLE
9/5 338
9/11 73.5
TRIPLE TRIO
4,9,11/5,7,9/3,5,11 119,335
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
4,9,11/5,7,9/Any Combination 1,064