Happy Valley · 2022-12-21 · 22:18
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-21 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. YO BEAUTY, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by A S Cruz, won by NOSE, with ARMOUR EAGLE second and LESLIE third. The 3.4 favourite NICCONI COUNTY finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | YO BEAUTY CP/H/TT 1.09.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 10 | 9.9 | NOSE |
| 2 | 6 | ARMOUR EAGLE B/XB/TT L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 8 | 14.0 | NOSE |
| 3 | 9 | LESLIE B K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 7 | 6.4 | N |
| 4 | 1 | STAR BRITE CP/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 8.2 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | NICCONI COUNTY TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 4 | 3.4 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | SKY FOREVER B/TT L Currie · K L Man | L Currie | K L Man | 2 | 19.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 8 | DIVINE SHINING XB1 H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 1 | 26.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | RED LION Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 12 | 4.2 | 3 |
| 9 | 11 | TELECOM SPEED K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 6 | 21.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 12 | ARIEL M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 9 | 182.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 4 | HAPPY SHARING CP/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 5 | 12.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | SUMMIT CHEERS TT M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 11 | 57.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | RED LION | 18.4% | 5.43 | 8 |
| 2 | 9 | LESLIE | 15.9% | 6.28 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | NICCONI COUNTY | 14.3% | 6.98 | 5 |
| 4 | 1 | STAR BRITE | 13.9% | 7.20 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | YO BEAUTY | 11.0% | 9.09 | 1 |
| 6 | 4 | HAPPY SHARING | 7.6% | 13.23 | 11 |
| 7 | 6 | ARMOUR EAGLE | 4.7% | 21.17 | 2 |
| 8 | 7 | SKY FOREVER | 4.5% | 22.09 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | TELECOM SPEED | 4.4% | 22.89 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | SUMMIT CHEERS | 2.3% | 42.67 | 12 |
| 11 | 8 | DIVINE SHINING | 2.2% | 45.90 | 7 |
| 12 | 12 | ARIEL | 0.8% | 130.41 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 99
PLACE
5 28.5
6 43
9 22
QUINELLA
5,6 890
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 254
5,9 94.5
6,9 158.5
FORECAST
5,6 1,748
TIERCE
5,6,9 13,208
TRIO
5,6,9 1,563
FIRST 4
1,5,6,9 1,855
QUARTET
5,6,9,1 63,525
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 19.5
A1 —
7TH DOUBLE
5/5 318.5
5/6 80