Happy Valley · 2022-12-21 · 19:46
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-21 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BRAVE STAR, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 2-3/4, with MIRACLES second and MR FUN third. The 2.2 favourite MR FUN finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BRAVE STAR XB1 1.09.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 12 | MIRACLES B M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 2 | 20.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | MR FUN TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 12 | 2.2 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 4 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | CHILL WAY H1 L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 5 | 37.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | SMILING CITY B-/CP2 H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 3 | 4.4 | 6-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | SUCCESS FIGHTER B/TT H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 10 | 21.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | TRIUMPHANT RETURN CP-/V1/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 6 | 18.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | SIGHT HERO B/TT L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 7 | 6.1 | 9-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | TO INFINITY B/TT C Wong · J Richards | C Wong | J Richards | 8 | 49.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | JUST GREAT TWO B L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 1 | 87.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | EL JEFE V A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 9 | 38.0 | 11-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | MR FUN | 25.1% | 3.99 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | SIGHT HERO | 15.4% | 6.49 | 9 |
| 3 | 3 | SUCCESS FIGHTER | 10.3% | 9.70 | 7 |
| 4 | 12 | MIRACLES | 9.2% | 10.87 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | TRIUMPHANT RETURN | 7.6% | 13.12 | 8 |
| 6 | 2 | BRAVE STAR | 6.8% | 14.72 | 1 |
| 7 | 11 | EL JEFE | 6.5% | 15.38 | 12 |
| 8 | 4 | CHILL WAY | 5.0% | 20.04 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | SMILING CITY | 4.6% | 21.67 | 6 |
| 10 | 8 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO | 3.3% | 30.53 | 4 |
| 11 | 5 | JUST GREAT TWO | 3.2% | 31.07 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | TO INFINITY | 3.0% | 33.63 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 136.5
PLACE
2 34.5
6 13
12 47.5
QUINELLA
2,12 1,134.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 62
2,12 322
6,12 86
FORECAST
2,12 1,818
TIERCE
2,12,6 8,046
TRIO
2,6,12 831
FIRST 4
2,6,8,12 1,581
QUARTET
2,12,6,8 49,505
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
9/2 634
9/12 141
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 28
A1 —