Happy Valley · 2022-12-21 · 19:16
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-12-21 was Class 3 over 2200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. NATURAL STORM, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with FIVE G PATCH second and HIT THE SHOT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite FIVE G PATCH finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B 2.15.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 2 | 3.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 3 | FIVE G PATCH Closed strongly TT H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 6 | 2.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | HIT THE SHOT TT Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 8 | 4.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | ENSURED Closed strongly M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 4 | 8.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | KING'S CAPITAL Closed strongly A Hamelin · D A Hayes | A Hamelin | D A Hayes | 9 | 52.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | LUCKY DIAMOND B/TT L Currie · K H Ting | L Currie | K H Ting | 1 | 20.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | DELIGHTFUL LAOS TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 3 | 17.0 | 7 |
| 8 | 2 | SAVVY KINGMAN Led early L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 5 | 25.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | PRIME MINISTER C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 7 | 33.0 | 10-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HIT THE SHOT | 21.7% | 4.60 | 3 |
| 2 | 8 | LUCKY DIAMOND | 19.2% | 5.22 | 6 |
| 3 | 3 | FIVE G PATCH | 18.9% | 5.30 | 2 |
| 4 | 7 | ENSURED | 12.1% | 8.27 | 4 |
| 5 | 9 | NATURAL STORM | 11.4% | 8.76 | 1 |
| 6 | 2 | SAVVY KINGMAN | 5.9% | 16.98 | 8 |
| 7 | 5 | DELIGHTFUL LAOS | 4.6% | 21.68 | 7 |
| 8 | 1 | PRIME MINISTER | 4.3% | 23.51 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | KING'S CAPITAL | 2.0% | 50.98 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 39
PLACE
3 12
4 15
9 14.5
QUINELLA
3,9 44
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 25
3,9 21.5
4,9 29
FORECAST
9,3 128
TIERCE
9,3,4 309
TRIO
3,4,9 52
FIRST 4
3,4,7,9 56
QUARTET
9,3,4,7 1,258
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
4/3 35
4/9 272
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 23