跑馬地 · 2023-10-11 · 12:50
第 4場
2023-10-11跑馬地第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Y L Chung策騎、W K Mo訓練的HAPPY FAT CAT勝出，贏出N。WOOD ON FIRE獲得亞軍；GOLDEN LUCK獲得季軍。1.8倍大熱門GOLDEN LUCK跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HAPPY FAT CAT H-/CP/TT 1.10.11 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Y L Chung · W K Mo | Y L Chung | W K Mo | 3 | 18.0 | N |
| 2 | 6 | WOOD ON FIRE H/TT K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 4 | 5.2 | N |
| 3 | 5 | GOLDEN LUCK XB/TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 2 | 1.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | SUPER ELITE H/XB1 M L Yeung · P F Yiu | M L Yeung | P F Yiu | 1 | 53.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | WIND SPEEDER L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 12 | 49.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | SHINKANSEN H/SR/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 8 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | OVERSUBSCRIBED XB A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 9 | 19.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | FLYING ON THE TURF B/XB/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 6 | 67.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | KOKUSHI MUSOU B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 10 | 8.3 | 5 |
| 10 | 1 | CHATEAU B2 B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 11 | 47.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | GOOD VIEW GLORY A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 7 | 19.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | URBAN TRIUMPH V-/TT H Bentley · W Y So | H Bentley | W Y So | 5 | 32.0 | 6-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GOLDEN LUCK | 41.2% | 2.43 | 3 |
| 2 | 6 | WOOD ON FIRE | 12.1% | 8.23 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | KOKUSHI MUSOU | 9.1% | 11.04 | 9 |
| 4 | 9 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 7.0% | 14.28 | 7 |
| 5 | 12 | GOOD VIEW GLORY | 6.9% | 14.60 | 11 |
| 6 | 11 | SHINKANSEN | 5.5% | 18.04 | 6 |
| 7 | 10 | WIND SPEEDER | 5.0% | 19.84 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | URBAN TRIUMPH | 5.0% | 20.02 | 12 |
| 9 | 4 | HAPPY FAT CAT | 3.9% | 25.66 | 1 |
| 10 | 8 | SUPER ELITE | 1.8% | 54.09 | 4 |
| 11 | 3 | FLYING ON THE TURF | 1.5% | 67.31 | 8 |
| 12 | 1 | CHATEAU | 0.9% | 111.70 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 185.5
PLACE
4 41.5
5 10.5
6 16.5
QUINELLA
4,6 435.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 54.5
4,6 108.5
5,6 23
FORECAST
4,6 989
TIERCE
4,6,5 2,396
TRIO
4,5,6 188
FIRST 4
4,5,6,8 1,121
QUARTET
4,6,5,8 37,954
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,6,8/4,5,6 281,353
3RD DOUBLE
8/4 2,220
8/6 81