Happy Valley · 2023-10-11 · 12:50
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY FAT CAT, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by W K Mo, won by N, with WOOD ON FIRE second and GOLDEN LUCK third. The 1.8 favourite GOLDEN LUCK finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HAPPY FAT CAT H-/CP/TT 1.10.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · W K Mo | Y L Chung | W K Mo | 3 | 18.0 | N |
| 2 | 6 | WOOD ON FIRE H/TT K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 4 | 5.2 | N |
| 3 | 5 | GOLDEN LUCK XB/TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 2 | 1.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | SUPER ELITE H/XB1 M L Yeung · P F Yiu | M L Yeung | P F Yiu | 1 | 53.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | WIND SPEEDER L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 12 | 49.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | SHINKANSEN H/SR/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 8 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | OVERSUBSCRIBED XB A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 9 | 19.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | FLYING ON THE TURF B/XB/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 6 | 67.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | KOKUSHI MUSOU B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 10 | 8.3 | 5 |
| 10 | 1 | CHATEAU B2 B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 11 | 47.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | GOOD VIEW GLORY A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 7 | 19.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | URBAN TRIUMPH V-/TT H Bentley · W Y So | H Bentley | W Y So | 5 | 32.0 | 6-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GOLDEN LUCK | 41.2% | 2.43 | 3 |
| 2 | 6 | WOOD ON FIRE | 12.1% | 8.23 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | KOKUSHI MUSOU | 9.1% | 11.04 | 9 |
| 4 | 9 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 7.0% | 14.28 | 7 |
| 5 | 12 | GOOD VIEW GLORY | 6.9% | 14.60 | 11 |
| 6 | 11 | SHINKANSEN | 5.5% | 18.04 | 6 |
| 7 | 10 | WIND SPEEDER | 5.0% | 19.84 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | URBAN TRIUMPH | 5.0% | 20.02 | 12 |
| 9 | 4 | HAPPY FAT CAT | 3.9% | 25.66 | 1 |
| 10 | 8 | SUPER ELITE | 1.8% | 54.09 | 4 |
| 11 | 3 | FLYING ON THE TURF | 1.5% | 67.31 | 8 |
| 12 | 1 | CHATEAU | 0.9% | 111.70 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 185.5
PLACE
4 41.5
5 10.5
6 16.5
QUINELLA
4,6 435.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 54.5
4,6 108.5
5,6 23
FORECAST
4,6 989
TIERCE
4,6,5 2,396
TRIO
4,5,6 188
FIRST 4
4,5,6,8 1,121
QUARTET
4,6,5,8 37,954
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,6,8/4,5,6 281,353
3RD DOUBLE
8/4 2,220
8/6 81