Happy Valley · 2023-10-11 · 21:16
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | HAPPY DAY B1/TT2 0.57.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 8 | 7.0 | N |
| 2 | 0 | SERGEANT PEPPER Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 1 | 13.0 | N |
| 3 | 0 | SAVVY DELIGHT P/TT H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 9 | 14.0 | N |
| 4 | 0 | CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 2 | 4.4 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | KING INVINCIBLE TT2 Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 10 | 8.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | KING ECCELLENTE B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 4 | 8.2 | 2 |
| 7 | 0 | SUPER COMMANDER V/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 12 | 15.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | KOWLOON EAST STAR H/SR/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 5 | 4.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | ISLAND SURPRISE B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 6 | 20.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | ACE TALENT H/PC/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 7 | 21.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | G ONE EXCELLENT B/TT B Avdulla · C S Shum | B Avdulla | C S Shum | 3 | 25.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | SONIC PEGASUS B1 M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 11 | 68.0 | 19-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-11 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY DAY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by J Richards, won by N, with SERGEANT PEPPER second and SAVVY DELIGHT third. The 4.1 favourite KOWLOON EAST STAR finished 8th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | SERGEANT PEPPER | 22.8% | 4.38 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | KING ECCELLENTE | 11.2% | 8.90 | 6 |
| 3 | 0 | HAPPY DAY | 10.5% | 9.51 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | CIRCUIT SEVEN | 10.2% | 9.83 | 4 |
| 5 | 0 | KING INVINCIBLE | 8.3% | 12.03 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | KOWLOON EAST STAR | 7.7% | 12.92 | 8 |
| 7 | 0 | ACE TALENT | 7.1% | 14.05 | 10 |
| 8 | 0 | ISLAND SURPRISE | 6.3% | 15.79 | 9 |
| 9 | 0 | SAVVY DELIGHT | 6.2% | 16.09 | 3 |
| 10 | 0 | SONIC PEGASUS | 3.7% | 27.13 | 12 |
| 11 | 0 | SUPER COMMANDER | 3.7% | 27.27 | 7 |
| 12 | 0 | G ONE EXCELLENT | 2.2% | 46.15 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 70.5
PLACE
2 37
5 41.5
6 27.5
QUINELLA
5,6 561.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 236
2,6 196.5
5,6 169.5
FORECAST
6,5 879
TIERCE
6,5,2 9,258
TRIO
2,5,6 1,834
FIRST 4
2,5,6,11 1,827
QUARTET
6,5,2,11 37,612
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
8/4/5 2,851
8/4/6 15,653
4TH DOUBLE
4/5 251.5
4/6 1,198