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Happy Valley · 2023-10-11 · 11:15

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1000m Course A 10 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-11 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. DIAMOND SOARS, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with MULTIMORE second and DASHING TRIUMPH third. The 2.9 favourite THETA HEDGE finished 8th.

Result

Official · 0.57.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 DIAMOND SOARS TT 0.57.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · P F Yiu 10 12.0 N
2 3 MULTIMORE TT H T Mo · T P Yung 5 9.6 N
3 7 DASHING TRIUMPH B1/TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui 6 16.0 N
4 8 HAR HAR AT HEART E A Badel · J Size 7 18.0 1/2
5 10 BELL OF VICTORY SR-/B2 K De Melo · D J Whyte 3 35.0 1-1/2
6 5 TRONIC MIGHTY V/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 9 3.4 1-3/4
7 6 HAPPY HORSE H/TT M F Poon · K L Man 8 9.2 3
8 4 THETA HEDGE B/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 4 2.9 3-1/4
9 9 SIX BEST FRIENDS CP/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 1 23.0 3-1/2
10 1 GOOD BOY B/TT K C Leung · P C Ng 2 9.9 5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DIAMOND SOARS2. MULTIMORE+0.05L3. DASHING TRIUMPH+0.05L4. HAR HAR AT HEART+0.5L5. BELL OF VICTORY+1.5L6. TRONIC MIGHTY+1.75L7. HAPPY HORSE+3L8. THETA HEDGE+3.25L9. SIX BEST FRIENDS+3.5L10. GOOD BOY+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick THETA HEDGE (25.8%) finished 8th — the winner DIAMOND SOARS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 THETA HEDGE 25.8% 3.88 8
2 5 TRONIC MIGHTY 19.6% 5.10 6
3 3 MULTIMORE 15.1% 6.61 2
4 2 DIAMOND SOARS 8.4% 11.94 1
5 8 HAR HAR AT HEART 6.7% 14.97 4
6 1 GOOD BOY 6.2% 16.17 10
7 6 HAPPY HORSE 5.1% 19.43 7
8 9 SIX BEST FRIENDS 4.9% 20.59 9
9 7 DASHING TRIUMPH 4.6% 21.83 3
10 10 BELL OF VICTORY 3.6% 27.48 5
THETA HEDGETRONIC MIGHTYMULTIMOREDIAMOND SOARS — wonHAR HAR AT HEARTGOOD BOYHAPPY HORSESIX BEST FRIENDSDASHING TRIUMPHBELL OF VICTORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 123.5

PLACE

2 39.5

3 22

7 43.5

QUINELLA

2,3 499

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 147

2,7 257.5

3,7 214

FORECAST

2,3 980

TIERCE

2,3,7 20,176

TRIO

2,3,7 2,724

FIRST 4

2,3,7,8 7,669

QUARTET

2,3,7,8 172,310