Happy Valley · 2023-10-11 · 13:50
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. EXUBERANT, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with KILINDINI second and JUNEAU FLASH third. The 2.4 favourite AWESOME TREASURE finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | EXUBERANT B/TT 1.10.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 7 | 15.0 | N |
| 2 | 1 | KILINDINI B-/H1/TT L Ferraris · W K Mo | L Ferraris | W K Mo | 6 | 10.0 | N |
| 3 | 3 | JUNEAU FLASH P K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 5 | 9.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | PROUD DRAGON V/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 2 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | DIAMOND DIAMOND B A Hamelin · T P Yung | A Hamelin | T P Yung | 4 | 15.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | AWESOME TREASURE TT Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 1 | 2.4 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | COLONEL V Y L Chung · P F Yiu | Y L Chung | P F Yiu | 12 | 18.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | PARTY WARRIOR H L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 9 | 25.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | SUPER EAGLE TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 3 | 8.3 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | TRAVEL GOLF B-/TT K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 11 | 26.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | COSMO NAVIGATOR B H Bowman · P C Ng | H Bowman | P C Ng | 8 | 13.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | STOICISM B/TT A Atzeni · M Newnham | A Atzeni | M Newnham | 10 | 20.0 | 16-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | AWESOME TREASURE | 29.4% | 3.40 | 6 |
| 2 | 11 | SUPER EAGLE | 14.5% | 6.90 | 9 |
| 3 | 7 | EXUBERANT | 8.7% | 11.44 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | JUNEAU FLASH | 8.4% | 11.85 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | COLONEL | 7.7% | 13.07 | 7 |
| 6 | 9 | PROUD DRAGON | 6.3% | 15.98 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | KILINDINI | 5.6% | 17.81 | 2 |
| 8 | 6 | COSMO NAVIGATOR | 4.5% | 22.07 | 11 |
| 9 | 2 | PARTY WARRIOR | 4.3% | 23.18 | 8 |
| 10 | 5 | TRAVEL GOLF | 4.2% | 23.73 | 10 |
| 11 | 10 | DIAMOND DIAMOND | 3.2% | 31.23 | 5 |
| 12 | 12 | STOICISM | 3.1% | 32.03 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 158
PLACE
1 34
3 24.5
7 37.5
QUINELLA
1,7 633
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 153.5
1,7 193.5
3,7 167.5
FORECAST
7,1 1,658
TIERCE
7,1,3 14,986
TRIO
1,3,7 1,794
FIRST 4
1,3,7,9 4,774
QUARTET
7,1,3,9 145,142
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,6/1,3,7 221,879
5TH DOUBLE
6/1 120.5
6/7 839.5
TRIPLE TRIO
4,5,6/2,5,6/1,3,7 2,023,691
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
4,5,6/2,5,6/Any Combination 10,773