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Happy Valley · 2023-10-11 · 12:15

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course A 10 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-11 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. IVY LEAGUE, ridden by K De Melo and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with TOURBILLON PRINCE second and ALL BEAUTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite CAPITAL LEGEND finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.39.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 IVY LEAGUE Closed strongly H/SR/XB/TT 1.39.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · D J Whyte 5 9.8 N
2 6 TOURBILLON PRINCE Led early TT C L Chau · T P Yung 1 12.0 N
3 3 ALL BEAUTY Closed strongly M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 16.0 1
4 1 WINNING DRAGON H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 4 7.1 2-1/2
5 9 COMET SPLENDIDO Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C S Shum 10 4.9 3
6 4 CAPITAL LEGEND Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 8 3.4 3-1/4
7 5 STAR CONTACT CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 7 9.5 4-1/2
8 7 JUMBO FORTUNE PC/XB L Ferraris · P C Ng 2 9.9 4-3/4
9 2 BEAUTYVERSE H/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 9 11.0 7
10 10 HIGH RISE SOLDIER B H T Mo · K W Lui 3 26.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. IVY LEAGUE2. TOURBILLON PRINCE+0.05L3. ALL BEAUTY+1L4. WINNING DRAGON+2.5L5. COMET SPLENDIDO+3L6. CAPITAL LEGEND+3.25L7. STAR CONTACT+4.5L8. JUMBO FORTUNE+4.75L9. BEAUTYVERSE+7L10. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick STAR CONTACT (15.5%) finished 7th — the winner IVY LEAGUE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 STAR CONTACT 15.5% 6.46 7
2 1 WINNING DRAGON 12.7% 7.86 4
3 3 ALL BEAUTY 11.2% 8.93 3
4 8 IVY LEAGUE 11.1% 8.98 1
5 2 BEAUTYVERSE 10.8% 9.25 9
6 9 COMET SPLENDIDO 10.7% 9.34 5
7 4 CAPITAL LEGEND 9.7% 10.26 6
8 10 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 9.4% 10.60 10
9 7 JUMBO FORTUNE 7.4% 13.55 8
10 6 TOURBILLON PRINCE 1.4% 71.92 2
STAR CONTACTWINNING DRAGONALL BEAUTYIVY LEAGUE — wonBEAUTYVERSECOMET SPLENDIDOCAPITAL LEGENDHIGH RISE SOLDIERJUMBO FORTUNETOURBILLON PRINCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 98

PLACE

3 42

6 41

8 31.5

QUINELLA

6,8 832

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 328

3,8 220.5

6,8 229

FORECAST

8,6 1,696

TIERCE

8,6,3 23,985

TRIO

3,6,8 4,242

FIRST 4

1,3,6,8 5,483

QUARTET

8,6,3,1 116,256

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

12/6 1,599

12/8 2,675