Happy Valley · 2023-10-11 · 14:20
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-11 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. LEAN HERO, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with TURIN WARRIOR second and DRAGON STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite TURIN WARRIOR finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | LEAN HERO Closed strongly B/TT 1.40.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 5 | 5.2 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | TURIN WARRIOR Closed strongly B/XB Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 10 | 3.7 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | DRAGON STAR Led early B-/XB/V1 K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 4 | 5.8 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | ROYAL PRIDE Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 9 | 6.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | PRINCE ALEX Closed strongly SR/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 12 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | SURE JOYFUL K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 3 | 9.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | CASA COSMO Closed strongly CP/XB/TT A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 8 | 61.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | RED HARE KING TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 6 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | UNITED ENDEAVORS H/TT1 M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 1 | 11.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 8 | SUPERB MOVE B/TT L Hewitson · C H Yip | L Hewitson | C H Yip | 11 | 23.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | GOODBAN BANBANBANG H1/XB1/TT- K De Melo · C W Chang | K De Melo | C W Chang | 2 | 78.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | FASTPASS B/SR/XB H T Mo · K W Lui | H T Mo | K W Lui | 7 | 59.0 | 14-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SURE JOYFUL | 20.3% | 4.92 | 6 |
| 2 | 10 | DRAGON STAR | 14.2% | 7.03 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | LEAN HERO | 13.1% | 7.66 | 1 |
| 4 | 7 | TURIN WARRIOR | 11.1% | 9.03 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | ROYAL PRIDE | 10.5% | 9.48 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | SUPERB MOVE | 7.8% | 12.83 | 10 |
| 7 | 3 | RED HARE KING | 7.4% | 13.57 | 8 |
| 8 | 6 | PRINCE ALEX | 6.1% | 16.47 | 5 |
| 9 | 12 | UNITED ENDEAVORS | 5.4% | 18.56 | 9 |
| 10 | 4 | CASA COSMO | 1.6% | 60.81 | 7 |
| 11 | 11 | FASTPASS | 1.3% | 78.58 | 12 |
| 12 | 5 | GOODBAN BANBANBANG | 1.2% | 81.44 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 52.5
PLACE
2 15.5
7 17.5
10 21.5
QUINELLA
2,7 109.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 47.5
2,10 59
7,10 50
FORECAST
2,7 209
TIERCE
2,7,10 1,156
TRIO
2,7,10 218
FIRST 4
1,2,7,10 159
QUARTET
2,7,10,1 3,784
All pools (1 more)
6TH DOUBLE
7/2 711.5
7/7 125