沙田 · 2023-11-19 · 10:00
第 11場
2023-11-19沙田第11場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由A Hamelin策騎、D J Whyte訓練的TAMRA BLITZ勝出，贏出1-1/4。LET'S DO IT獲得亞軍；CHIU CHOW SPIRIT獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.3倍大熱門GOLDEN SAMURAI跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | TAMRA BLITZ 後段發力 CP/H/SR 1.22.17 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 3 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | LET'S DO IT 後段發力 CP K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 7 | 19.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | CHIU CHOW SPIRIT 後段發力 B/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 9 | 14.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | MASSIVE ACTION 早段領放 SR/V L Hewitson · F C Lor | L Hewitson | F C Lor | 2 | 5.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | GOLDEN SAMURAI 後段發力 B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 3.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | LESLIE 後段發力 B A Atzeni · C W Chang | A Atzeni | C W Chang | 8 | 33.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | SIMPLE HEDGE Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 11 | 3.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 14 | JUMBO FORTUNE 後段發力 PC/XB K De Melo · P C Ng | K De Melo | P C Ng | 14 | 24.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | BRAVE DREAMS TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 1 | 18.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 12 | FAST VICTORY K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 4 | 224.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | BEER PALACE L Currie · M Newnham | L Currie | M Newnham | 10 | 259.0 | 4 |
| 12 | 8 | STREET CONQUEROR TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 13 | 63.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 13 | 13 | NORDIC STAR TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 12 | 184.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 14 | 2 | MAGNIAC V/TT B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 5 | 10.0 | 6 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SIMPLE HEDGE | 30.9% | 3.24 | 7 |
| 2 | 7 | GOLDEN SAMURAI | 22.4% | 4.47 | 5 |
| 3 | 6 | MASSIVE ACTION | 11.2% | 8.94 | 4 |
| 4 | 11 | LET'S DO IT | 5.4% | 18.43 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | LESLIE | 4.7% | 21.35 | 6 |
| 6 | 3 | CHIU CHOW SPIRIT | 4.4% | 22.77 | 3 |
| 7 | 5 | TAMRA BLITZ | 4.2% | 23.56 | 1 |
| 8 | 8 | STREET CONQUEROR | 3.4% | 29.22 | 12 |
| 9 | 14 | JUMBO FORTUNE | 3.2% | 31.61 | 8 |
| 10 | 2 | MAGNIAC | 3.1% | 32.24 | 14 |
| 11 | 1 | BRAVE DREAMS | 3.0% | 33.67 | 9 |
| 12 | 13 | NORDIC STAR | 2.9% | 34.29 | 13 |
| 13 | 12 | FAST VICTORY | 0.8% | 121.78 | 10 |
| 14 | 9 | BEER PALACE | 0.4% | 265.92 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 127
PLACE
3 37
5 33.5
11 42
QUINELLA
5,11 728.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 201
3,11 256
5,11 215
FORECAST
5,11 2,035
TIERCE
5,11,3 14,065
TRIO
3,5,11 2,602
FIRST 4
3,5,6,11 2,328
QUARTET
5,11,3,6 58,856
全部彩池（另 4 項）
10TH DOUBLE
4/5 423.5
4/11 136
2ND TREBLE
6/4/5 1,820
6/4/11 931
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
4,6,8/3,5,11 172,791
SIX UP
6,7/1,6/2,5/6,7/4,6/5,11 3,543
7/1/5/6/4/5 22,286
6 [B Avdulla] —
2 [J Size] —