沙田 · 2023-12-17 · 08:50
第 8場
2023-12-17沙田第8場，Class 4，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、P C Ng訓練的AESTHETICISM勝出，贏出3/4。SUPER WISE DRAGON獲得亞軍；MASTER HERO獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.5倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | AESTHETICISM 後段發力 B 1.35.24 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 8 | 2.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 12 | SUPER WISE DRAGON 後段發力 TT J McDonald · W Y So | J McDonald | W Y So | 1 | 5.3 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | MASTER HERO 後段發力 CP/XB/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz | L Hewitson | A S Cruz | 2 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 13 | LITTLE FAIRY 後段發力 B/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 3 | 8.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | NORTHERN BEAST 後段發力 B1 B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 9 | 20.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | FOREVER FOLKS 後段發力 B A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 7 | 80.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | LUCKY ETERNITY CP C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 13 | 14.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | SATIRICAL GLORY 早段領放 P-/H M Chadwick · D A Hayes | M Chadwick | D A Hayes | 11 | 16.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | HOLY LAKE B/XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 7.3 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 6 | FREE FOAL V L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 10 | 32.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 14 | SUPERB MOVE B/TT A Atzeni · C H Yip | A Atzeni | C H Yip | 14 | 39.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 8 | CLUB SODA B1 A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 6 | 51.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 13 | 7 | CASA COSMO CP/XB/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 5 | 78.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 14 | 9 | E TALENT B1 M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 4 | 234.0 | 17-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | AESTHETICISM | 27.3% | 3.67 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | HOLY LAKE | 16.6% | 6.01 | 9 |
| 3 | 5 | LUCKY ETERNITY | 9.3% | 10.81 | 7 |
| 4 | 12 | SUPER WISE DRAGON | 9.2% | 10.91 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | MASTER HERO | 7.8% | 12.80 | 3 |
| 6 | 13 | LITTLE FAIRY | 5.9% | 16.93 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | SATIRICAL GLORY | 5.6% | 17.94 | 8 |
| 8 | 14 | SUPERB MOVE | 3.8% | 26.40 | 11 |
| 9 | 6 | FREE FOAL | 3.8% | 26.66 | 10 |
| 10 | 7 | CASA COSMO | 3.7% | 26.97 | 13 |
| 11 | 11 | NORTHERN BEAST | 3.3% | 30.05 | 5 |
| 12 | 8 | CLUB SODA | 2.4% | 41.76 | 12 |
| 13 | 10 | FOREVER FOLKS | 1.0% | 95.30 | 6 |
| 14 | 9 | E TALENT | 0.4% | 265.58 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 25
PLACE
2 15
3 33
12 17.5
QUINELLA
2,12 81.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 67.5
2,12 35
3,12 89
FORECAST
2,12 161
TIERCE
2,12,3 954
TRIO
2,3,12 264
FIRST 4
2,3,12,13 325
QUARTET
2,12,3,13 4,321
全部彩池（另 2 項）
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
6,9>7,10/2,3,12 4,232
7TH DOUBLE
7,10/2 48
7,10/12 31.5