Sha Tin · 2023-12-17 · 16:43
Race 8
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | AESTHETICISM Closed strongly B 1.35.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 8 | 2.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 0 | SUPER WISE DRAGON Closed strongly TT J McDonald · W Y So | J McDonald | W Y So | 1 | 5.3 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 0 | MASTER HERO Closed strongly CP/XB/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz | L Hewitson | A S Cruz | 2 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | LITTLE FAIRY Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 3 | 8.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | NORTHERN BEAST Closed strongly B1 B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 9 | 20.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 7 | 80.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | LUCKY ETERNITY CP C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 13 | 14.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | SATIRICAL GLORY Led early P-/H M Chadwick · D A Hayes | M Chadwick | D A Hayes | 11 | 16.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | HOLY LAKE B/XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 7.3 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | FREE FOAL V L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 10 | 32.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | SUPERB MOVE B/TT A Atzeni · C H Yip | A Atzeni | C H Yip | 14 | 39.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 0 | CLUB SODA B1 A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 6 | 51.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 13 | 0 | CASA COSMO CP/XB/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 5 | 78.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 14 | 0 | E TALENT B1 M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 4 | 234.0 | 17-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-17 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. AESTHETICISM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by 3/4, with SUPER WISE DRAGON second and MASTER HERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | AESTHETICISM | 27.3% | 3.67 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | HOLY LAKE | 16.6% | 6.01 | 9 |
| 3 | 0 | LUCKY ETERNITY | 9.3% | 10.81 | 7 |
| 4 | 0 | SUPER WISE DRAGON | 9.2% | 10.91 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | MASTER HERO | 7.8% | 12.80 | 3 |
| 6 | 0 | LITTLE FAIRY | 5.9% | 16.93 | 4 |
| 7 | 0 | SATIRICAL GLORY | 5.6% | 17.94 | 8 |
| 8 | 0 | SUPERB MOVE | 3.8% | 26.40 | 11 |
| 9 | 0 | FREE FOAL | 3.8% | 26.66 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | CASA COSMO | 3.7% | 26.97 | 13 |
| 11 | 0 | NORTHERN BEAST | 3.3% | 30.05 | 5 |
| 12 | 0 | CLUB SODA | 2.4% | 41.76 | 12 |
| 13 | 0 | FOREVER FOLKS | 1.0% | 95.30 | 6 |
| 14 | 0 | E TALENT | 0.4% | 265.58 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 25
PLACE
2 15
3 33
12 17.5
QUINELLA
2,12 81.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 67.5
2,12 35
3,12 89
FORECAST
2,12 161
TIERCE
2,12,3 954
TRIO
2,3,12 264
FIRST 4
2,3,12,13 325
QUARTET
2,12,3,13 4,321
All pools (2 more)
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
6,9>7,10/2,3,12 4,232
7TH DOUBLE
7,10/2 48
7,10/12 31.5