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Sha Tin · 2023-12-17 · 09:25

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course B 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-17 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. SPEED DRAGON, ridden by J McDonald and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with BEAUTY FIT second and STAR MAC third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite KARMA finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.35.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 SPEED DRAGON Closed strongly B1 1.35.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · K W Lui 10 8.6 SH
2 7 BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E/P A Hamelin · J Size 12 11.0 SH
3 14 STAR MAC Closed strongly K C Leung · D A Hayes 6 15.0 1
4 6 KARMA Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 4 2.1 1-3/4
5 3 GOLDEN ARTIE Closed strongly H/XB A Atzeni · P F Yiu 14 36.0 1-3/4
6 8 BEAUTY MISSILE B B Avdulla · F C Lor 7 37.0 2
7 12 MARADO B C L Chau · W Y So 8 67.0 2-3/4
8 9 FLYING MOJITO B/XB K De Melo · D J Hall 11 13.0 3-1/4
9 13 VIVA HUNTER Led early TT M L Yeung · K L Man 9 81.0 3-1/2
10 10 ZOOM BOOM B-/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 2 20.0 3-1/2
11 5 MASTER OF FORTUNE Closed strongly TT Z Purton · P C Ng 5 5.1 4-1/2
12 2 BEAUTYVERSE H2/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 1 17.0 4-1/2
13 11 MAJESTIC SPEED TT1 L Ferraris · C S Shum 3 136.0 11-1/2
14 1 CELESTIAL POWER B-/V2/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 13 110.0 27-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPEED DRAGON2. BEAUTY FIT+0.1L3. STAR MAC+1L4. KARMA+1.75L5. GOLDEN ARTIE+1.75L6. BEAUTY MISSILE+2L7. MARADO+2.75L8. FLYING MOJITO+3.25L9. VIVA HUNTER+3.5L10. ZOOM BOOM+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick KARMA (22.3%) finished 4th — the winner SPEED DRAGON was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 KARMA 22.3% 4.48 4
2 5 MASTER OF FORTUNE 16.3% 6.15 11
3 3 GOLDEN ARTIE 9.4% 10.59 5
4 10 ZOOM BOOM 9.3% 10.78 10
5 7 BEAUTY FIT 7.6% 13.13 2
6 2 BEAUTYVERSE 7.3% 13.76 12
7 4 SPEED DRAGON 6.8% 14.74 1
8 12 MARADO 5.7% 17.66 7
9 9 FLYING MOJITO 3.8% 26.36 8
10 11 MAJESTIC SPEED 2.9% 34.30 13
11 1 CELESTIAL POWER 2.6% 38.19 14
12 13 VIVA HUNTER 2.6% 39.16 9
13 8 BEAUTY MISSILE 2.4% 42.17 6
14 14 STAR MAC 1.1% 91.38 3
KARMAMASTER OF FORTUNEGOLDEN ARTIEZOOM BOOMBEAUTY FITBEAUTYVERSESPEED DRAGON — wonMARADOFLYING MOJITOMAJESTIC SPEEDCELESTIAL POWERVIVA HUNTERBEAUTY MISSILESTAR MAC

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 86.5

PLACE

4 29

7 32.5

14 34.5

QUINELLA

4,7 431

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 139.5

4,14 234

7,14 235

FORECAST

4,7 883

TIERCE

4,7,14 13,337

TRIO

4,7,14 2,457

FIRST 4

4,6,7,14 973

QUARTET

4,7,14,6 41,314

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

2/4 365

2/7 55.5