Sha Tin · 2023-12-17 · 07:10
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-17 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. TORONADO PHANTOM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by N, with CALL ME DANDY second and VIVA CHALEUR third. The 3.3 favourite SMOKEY BEAR finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | TORONADO PHANTOM P2/TT 1.09.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 12 | 10.0 | N |
| 2 | 4 | CALL ME DANDY CP-/XB/B1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 4.9 | N |
| 3 | 2 | VIVA CHALEUR TT J McDonald · C Fownes | J McDonald | C Fownes | 6 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 5 | GOOD BUDDY CP- B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 1 | 6.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | MARK THE MOMENT V/TT L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 9 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | SKY FOREVER B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 10 | 38.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | SMOKEY BEAR B/XB/TT K De Melo · C W Chang | K De Melo | C W Chang | 5 | 3.3 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | AMAZING DUCK CP1 L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 2 | 9.6 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | OUTGATE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 11 | 14.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | SPORTS LEGEND CP/TT K Teetan · J Richards | K Teetan | J Richards | 8 | 15.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | YOUTH POWER M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 7 | 150.0 | 15-1/4 |
| 12 | 12 | HAPPY FAT CAT CP/TT H T Mo · W K Mo | H T Mo | W K Mo | 3 | 31.0 | 27-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | CALL ME DANDY | 17.7% | 5.66 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | OUTGATE | 13.2% | 7.56 | 9 |
| 3 | 7 | TORONADO PHANTOM | 11.8% | 8.48 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | SMOKEY BEAR | 11.3% | 8.85 | 7 |
| 5 | 9 | AMAZING DUCK | 11.2% | 8.91 | 8 |
| 6 | 5 | GOOD BUDDY | 8.7% | 11.56 | 4 |
| 7 | 12 | HAPPY FAT CAT | 7.3% | 13.61 | 12 |
| 8 | 2 | VIVA CHALEUR | 7.1% | 14.17 | 3 |
| 9 | 6 | MARK THE MOMENT | 6.6% | 15.13 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | SKY FOREVER | 2.8% | 35.36 | 6 |
| 11 | 8 | SPORTS LEGEND | 1.4% | 71.30 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | YOUTH POWER | 0.9% | 112.78 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 105.5
PLACE
2 40
4 17.5
7 29
QUINELLA
4,7 219.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 108
2,7 194
4,7 80.5
FORECAST
7,4 477
TIERCE
7,4,2 5,091
TRIO
2,4,7 882
FIRST 4
2,4,5,7 1,298
QUARTET
7,4,2,5 33,419
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
9/7/4 817
9/7/7 4,513
4TH DOUBLE
7/4 101
7/7 571