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Sha Tin · 2023-12-17 · 06:05

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course B 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-17 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. JAMES TAK, ridden by C L Chau and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-3/4, with SPEEDY FORTUNE second and PATCH OF THETA third. The 4.2 favourite LOYAL BO BO finished 4th.

Result

Official · 0.56.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 JAMES TAK 0.56.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · T P Yung 7 6.5 1-3/4
2 14 SPEEDY FORTUNE A Hamelin · J Size 9 13.0 1-3/4
3 11 PATCH OF THETA H1/XB1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 5.9 2-1/2
4 10 LOYAL BO BO Z Purton · F C Lor 14 4.2 3-1/2
5 13 MR GOOD VIBES M L Yeung · D J Hall 12 169.0 4-1/2
6 4 HAYDAY H1/P1/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 3 65.0 6-1/4
7 5 SUPER COMMANDER V/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 8 10.0 6-1/4
8 1 RED ELEGANCE H/TT L Hewitson · J Richards 5 9.4 6-1/2
9 8 GLORY B H1 K De Melo · D J Whyte 10 48.0 6-3/4
10 3 MULTISUPER B J McDonald · P F Yiu 6 5.0 7
11 7 FALCON COURT A Atzeni · D A Hayes 11 21.0 7-1/4
12 2 SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 2 21.0 11-1/2
13 6 DASH AVENUE B1/TT1 K Teetan · C H Yip 4 28.0 27-1/2
14 12 TOURBILLON FLOW TT1 A Badel · C S Shum 13 100.0 28-1/4
0 HAPPY MISSION L Ferraris · M Newnham

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JAMES TAK2. SPEEDY FORTUNE+1.75L3. PATCH OF THETA+2.5L4. LOYAL BO BO+3.5L5. MR GOOD VIBES+4.5L6. HAYDAY+6.25L7. SUPER COMMANDER+6.25L8. RED ELEGANCE+6.5L9. GLORY B+6.75L10. MULTISUPER+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LOYAL BO BO (17.2%) finished 4th — the winner JAMES TAK was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 LOYAL BO BO 17.2% 5.81 4
2 3 MULTISUPER 13.1% 7.62 10
3 11 PATCH OF THETA 13.0% 7.69 3
4 5 SUPER COMMANDER 8.5% 11.81 7
5 12 TOURBILLON FLOW 7.9% 12.71 14
6 7 FALCON COURT 7.6% 13.09 11
7 6 DASH AVENUE 6.5% 15.27 13
8 8 GLORY B 5.8% 17.31 9
9 9 JAMES TAK 5.6% 17.83 1
10 1 RED ELEGANCE 4.8% 20.76 8
11 14 SPEEDY FORTUNE 3.2% 31.28 2
12 2 SUPER AXIOM 3.1% 32.19 12
13 4 HAYDAY 3.1% 32.48 6
14 13 MR GOOD VIBES 0.5% 185.47 5
LOYAL BO BOMULTISUPERPATCH OF THETASUPER COMMANDERTOURBILLON FLOWFALCON COURTDASH AVENUEGLORY BJAMES TAK — wonRED ELEGANCESPEEDY FORTUNESUPER AXIOMHAYDAYMR GOOD VIBES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 65.5

PLACE

9 24

11 21.5

14 41.5

QUINELLA

9,14 541.5

QUINELLA PLACE

9,11 90.5

9,14 154.5

11,14 115

FORECAST

9,14 1,035

TIERCE

9,14,11 7,816

TRIO

9,11,14 1,124

FIRST 4

9,10,11,14 1,208

QUARTET

9,14,11,10 34,873

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

10/9 746

10/14 229.5